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There are other elections outside of Virginia today. They’re just not going to be close.

There’s one major race that’s up for grabs today on Election Day 2021. But the rest are mostly about margin of victory than the outcome.

By Collin Sherwin

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New York City mayoral candidate Eric Adams attends a Democratic Party “Get Out the Vote” rally nine days before New York City elections on October 24, 2021 in the Upper West Side neighborhood of Manhattan, New York City. Photo by Andrew Lichtenstein/Corbis via Getty Images

We’ve got a nail biter in the Virginia Governor’s race today, and of course specific seats in Old Dominion’s House of Delegates or the New Jersey legislature could be extremely close. But if any more than 15,000 or so people are voting for a candidate, Election Day 2021 is just about a wrap in most major markets.

The most interesting race appears to be for mayor of Buffalo, where longtime Democratic incumbent Byron Brown is heavily favored to win yet again over Democratic socialist India Walton, despite Walton winning the Democratic primary. Thanks to a write-in campaign that seems to be aligning moderates and the small amount of Republicans in the city, Brown sits at .85 at PredictIt, with Walton priced at .16.

There are no other candidates on the ballot, so voters will either check the box for Walton or write in Brown’s name, but the write-in candidate being a 5-to-1 favorite is certainly unusual.

You can’t bet on Eric Adams to win the NYC Mayoral Election at Betfair, a market-based wagering site operating in London. Because no one on the other side of the market wants to take your money at any price. And if you can find a share of Adams to win available at PredictIt it will cost you .99 to win $1, minus the commission PredictIt takes on winning trades.

Today the polls close all across the state of New York at 9 p.m. ET.

In the New Jersey Governor’s race, Democratic incumbent Phil Murphy will net you $5 on $100 wagered at Betfair, while shares of his opponent Jack Ciattarelli at PredictIt can be purchased for .06 cents that would turn into $1.00 if he was the winner.

That doesn’t mean these races lack wagering opportunity, as you can also bet on the margin of victory in the Garden State at PredictIt. Murphy to win by 2% to 4% will cost you .12, but so will him winning by 10% to 12%, or 12% to 14%. Polls close in New Jersey at 8:00 p.m. ET.

And today Boston will elect their first female mayor of color, as Michelle Wu will defeat fellow former City Council member Annissa Essaibi-George. Wu is at .99 at PredictIt, but with no margin of victory markets available that we can find anywhere. The polls will close at 8 p.m. ET in Boston.

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