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Bears-Lions predictions: Breaking down NFL betting splits, picks for Week 12 Thanksgiving game

We break down betting splits for the Week 12 Thanksgiving matchup between the Bears and Lions.

Quarterback Andy Dalton #14 of the Chicago Bears calls signals against the Baltimore Ravens at Soldier Field on November 21, 2021 in Chicago, Illinois. Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images

To kickoff Week 12 in the NFL, we have a triple header on Thanksgiving Day, beginning with the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions at 12:30 p.m. ET. The Bears (3-7) have lost five straight games after losing 16-13 to the Baltimore Ravens last Sunday.

The Lions (0-9-1) are trying to win their first game of the season and at home. In Week 10, Detroit lost 13-10 to the Browns on the road. Below we’ll take a look at the odds and splits courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook for this NFC North Thanksgiving matchup.

Bears vs. Lions, Week 12 betting splits

Betting the spread: The Bears are field goal favorites. 57% of the handle and 57% of bets are being placed on the Bears to cover.

Is the public right? It is hard to trust either of these teams as we head into Thanksgiving Day. The Bears have lost their last five games and are 1-4 on the road this season under head coach Matt Nagy. Chicago’s only win on the road this season was in Week 5 against the Las Vegas Raiders.

That being said, could the Bears pull off the win and cover? It’s possible with Andy Dalton starting under center. Chicago is 2-3 against the spread on the road this season but 2-0 ATS when they are the favorite. As for the Lions, starting QB Jared Goff will likely be back under after missing last week’s game because of injury. Detroit is surprisingly 4-2 ATS in their last six games and 6-4 ATS as the underdog this season. If Goff plays, then Detroit +3 is a live play, especially with how they are running the ball with D’Andre Swift.

Betting the over/under: The point total is installed at 41.5. 72% of the handle and 65% of bets are being placed on the under.

Is the public right? I think the public is on the right side with the under on the 41.5 point total. Both offenses are struggling with the Lions averaging 16 points per game, while the Bears are averaging 16.3 points per game. The total has gone under in seven of Chicago’s last nine games. For the Lions, the total has gone under in seven of their last eight games.

Betting the moneyline: The Bears are road favorites with moneyline odds at -155. Moneyline odds for the Lions are at +135. 61% of the handle and 57% of bets are being placed on the Bears to win.

Is the public right? It would not surprise me if the Bears won because they have the better team on paper at certain spots. However, we could also see the Lions pull off the upset as Chicago does not have any faith in Matt Nagy. Meanwhile in Detroit, you can see this team play hard each and every week for their head coach. If the Lions can run the ball with Swift successfully, then they have a chance to get the job done.

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