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Bills-Saints predictions: Breaking down NFL betting splits, picks for Week 12 Thanksgiving game

We break down betting splits for the Week 12 Thanksgiving matchup between the Bills and Saints.

Quarterback Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills leads his team to the field before the start of the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at TIAA Bank Field on November 7, 2021 in Jacksonville, Florida. The Jaguars defeated the Bills 9 to 6. Photo by Don Juan Moore/Getty Images

The last game to kickoff on Thanksgiving will be between the Buffalo Bills and New Orleans Saints at 8:30 p.m. ET. The Bills (6-4) are looking to get back into the win column after they lost 41-15 to the Indianapolis Colts. The Saints (5-5) are riding a three-game losing skid after they suffered a 11-point road defeat to the Philadelphia Eagles last week. Below we’ll take a look at the odds and splits courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook for this primetime matchup.

Bills vs. Saints, Week 12 betting splits

Betting the spread: The Bills are 6.5-point favorites. 84% of the handle and 79% of bets are being placed on the Bills to cover.

Is the public right? With the Saints not having Alvin Kamara and potentially Mark Ingram, it seems like a good get-right spot for the Bills. This season, Buffalo is 2-2 against this spread as road favorites and 3-2 ATS on the road. The Bills’ offense has not looked right over the last few weeks, scoring 15 points in Week 11 and then only six points in Week 9 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. But they are going up against a Saints’ defense that is allowing 30 points per game in their last three game. I trust Josh Allen and Co. to right the ship over the likes of Trevor Siemian and Sean Payton.

Betting the over/under: The point total is installed at 45. 54% of the handle and 62% of bets are being placed on the over.

Is the public right? Despite both teams’ offensive struggles, the total is too low for this game. I agree with the public that the over is the better play. The total has gone over in four of Buffalo’s last six games and the Bills’ over record is 5-5. As for New Orleans, the total has gone over in six of their last seven games and their over record is 6-4.

Betting the moneyline: The Bills are road favorites with moneyline odds at -275. Moneyline odds for the Saints are at +220. 83% of the handle and 81% of bets are being placed on the Bills to win.

Is the public right? The Saints have struggled at home this season, while the Bills are 3-2 on the road. However, do not let the records fool you in this matchup. Buffalo should come get the win on Thursday night and get their passing game going. It will be up for the Saints to shorten the game and try to establish the run without their top two running backs.

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