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Serie A odds, picks after 11 matchdays: Napoli and AC Milan deadlocked atop Italy’s domestic league table

The two sides have separated themselves from the rest of the league through 11 games.

US Salernitana v SSC Napoli - Serie A
Mario Rui of SSC Napoli during the Serie A match between US Salernitana and SSC Napoli at Stadio Arechi on October 31, 2021 in Salerno, Italy.
Photo by Francesco Pecoraro/Getty Images

The Serie A title race was expected to come down to Juventus and Inter Milan when the league started back in August but there were two significant developments to completely change the Italian league. Cristiano Ronaldo and Romelu Lukaku both left for the Premier League, leaving the two top contenders without their best players. That’s opened up the field for other teams who didn’t see their top talent leave in the summer transfer window.

Here’s an updated look at Serie A odds after 11 matchdays for the 2021-22 season courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

The favorite

Napoli (Was +1200, Now +170)
Record: 10-1-0
Key wins: Juventus
Key losses: None

This club consistently been in the top 4 for much of the 2010s, with four runner-up finishes during that time. Napoli dropped off over the last few seasons and wasn’t expected to be a threat this year. However, the top clubs losing out of big players has been a boon for the club. Victor Osimhen and Lorenzo Insigne might be the best goal-scoring duo in the league, which has Napoli at the top of the table through 11 matches.

The other contenders

AC Milan (Was +1200, Now +240)
Record: 10-1-0
Key wins: Roma, Atalanta, Lazio
Key losses: None

AC Milan has been slightly more battle-tested than Napoli up to this point. The team has wins over other contenders like Roma and Atalanta, which should help as the season progresses. Olivier Giroud and Zlatan Ibrahimovic continue to get the job done in front of goal, and Milan’s defense has been solid so far. There’s two matches against Napoli, and those will likely determine the league title.

Inter Milan (Was +350, Now +275)
Record: 7-3-1
Key wins: None
Key losses: Lazio

Edin Dzeko has done his best to replace Lukaku, and Inter still has star Lautaro Martinez in attack. The club gets AC Milan and Napoli in its next two matches, which will essentially be do-or-die games for Inter. If the team can get points from both games, it’ll be a good sign going forward. Inter is seven points out from the top spot, but can close that gap quickly if it wins its next two matches.

Juventus and Atalanta (+1200)

Juventus still has some exceptional players but Ronaldo was always the difference for this team. The club was -110 to win the league at the start of the season and is currently tied for eighth in the table on points. Atalanta was +600 prior to the season starting and has an outside shot currently sitting at fifth, but this appears to be a two-team race.

Best bet to win league: Inter Milan (+275)

Even as Napoli and AC Milan appear to pull away from the rest of the pack, Inter is close enough to make this thing interesting. The team still has four matches against Napoli and AC Milan combined, so there’s room to quickly make up that gap. This is the best value play on the board, as Juventus and Atalanta are too far out at the moment. The next two matches will be critical.

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