The Atlanta Falcons take on the New Orleans Saints in an NFC South matchup in New Orleans, Louisiana on Sunday, November 7th. The Falcons are trying to figure out their new offensive identity and the Saints are rolling on the three-game win streak with a big win last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Here, we’ll take a look at our picks for best bets for the Falcons-Saints in Week 9 of the NFL season. Odds come via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Spread: NO -6.5
Point total: 41.5
Moneyline: ATL +205, NO -255
Our picks for Falcons vs. Saints
Pick against the spread: NO -6.5
Both teams are suffering from big losses to their offense. The Falcons had star wide receiver Calvin Ridley step away from the team to work on his mental health and the Saints had quarterback Jameis Winston suffer a torn ACL last week. New Orleans is expected to go with Taysom Hill under center who is a dual-threat quarterback that got some playing time last year. The Falcons offense should struggle in this one and their defense isn’t good enough to contain Hill and what he brings to the table. I think the Saints roll.
UPDATE: Trevor Siemian is expected to start on Sunday, per Ian Rapoport. While this may seem like it should affect the pick, I still think the Saints cover. If Semien struggles to throw the ball, they are going to lean on Alvin Kamara which has been a recipe for success. The Falcons don’t have a good defense and I am worried about their offense. Still roll Saints to cover.
Over/under: OVER 41.5
Even without their star wide receiver, the Falcons do have a player named Kyle Pitts. While he was certainly overhyped coming out of college, he is starting to hit his stride in the NFL. On the other side of the ball, I think that Hill will be in a good place to run an option offense with running back Kamara that could be really deadly and productive. The Saints aren’t normally known for winning ballgames through the air this season so this won’t be anything new for them.
UPDATE: Trevor Siemian is expected to start on Sunday, per Ian Rapoport. While I still think that the Saints cover, this does change my pick for the over/under. I think that Hill finds ways to open up the offense more, but because they plan on at least trotting Siemian out there to start, this caps their offensive potential for me. Change this one to the UNDER in what figures to be an ugly game.
Preferred player prop: Cordarelle Patterson OVER 72.5 combined rushing and receiving yards
The Falcons offense is going to be figuring itself out as they go this week. This is their first game without Ridley (officially) and they are going to need some help in the receiving game. Patterson has shown that he can be a dual-threat running back by performing well in both the ground game and the receiving game. While the Saints' defense is stingy, the versatility of Patterson will give him the edge to hit this OVER.
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