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Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington predictions: Betting splits, DFS advice for main event

Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington meet for the welterweight championship in the main event of UFC 268 on Saturday, November 6th. We break down how the betting public is picking the fight and the DFS pricing from DraftKings.

UFC 268 comes to you live from Madison Square Garden in New York, New York on Saturday, November 6th. UFC 268 is headlined by a welterweight title fight between the champion Kamaru Usman and the challenger Colby Covington.

Usman enters with a 19-1 UFC record and has held the welterweight title since March of 2019. He has successfully defended his title four times with his most recent defense coming in April of this year. He defeated Jorge Masvidal by KO/TKO in the second round. Covington heads into the PPV with a 16-2 record. His last fight was in September 2020 against Tyron Woodley and he won in the fifth round by KO/TKO. The champ enters as the -320 favorite while Covington as the challenger is the underdog with +250 odds.

Here are the odds and betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook for Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington at UFC 268 on Saturday, November 6th.

Odds and Betting splits

Usman: -320 (62% of action, 81% of bets)
Covington: +250 (38% of action, 19% of bets)

Winning Method odds

Usman By Decision: +165 (5% of action, 11% of bets)
Usman By KO, TKO or DQ: +140 (60% of action, 49% of bets)
Usman By Submission: +1000 (3% of action, 5% of bets)
Covington By Decision: +450 (8% of action, 10% of bets)
Covington By KO, TKO or DQ: +750 (17% of action, 13% of bets)
Covington By Submission: +2000 (7% of action, 7% of bets)
Tie: +5000 (1% of action, 4% of bets)

DraftKings DFS Values

Usman: $9,300
Covington: $6,900

Usman is going to be the most expensive fighter on the DFS slate because he is one of the best, if not the best, fighters on the planet. He hasn’t lost a fight since 2013 and has successfully defended his title four times leading up to this bout. One of those defenses was against Colby Covington and it ended with Usman winning by KO/TKO in the fifth round. If you have to roll Covington for your lineup, the benefit is just that Usman isn’t known for putting away fights early. He is like a lion on the prowl. He toys with his prey before finishing them. If you do choose Covington you should at least get a few rounds of value before Usman decides it's time to end the fight.

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