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2021 NFL power rankings heading into Week 10

We use point differential against the spread to see where the value lies in our Week 10 NFL power rankings.

Eno Benjamin #26 of the Arizona Cardinals celebrates with Colt McCoy #12 after running the ball for a touchdown during the third quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium on November 07, 2021 in Santa Clara, California. Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

The NFL wrapped up Week 9 and we are officially halfway through the regular season calendar. If the playoffs started today, the Tennessee Titans and Arizona Cardinals would be the No. 1 seed in their respective conferences. Somehow, we’d have first round matchups that include Falcons-Packers and Raiders-Bills. Some of this makes sense, and some is definitely not what we expected when the season began.

Week 9 brought with it the second straight double digit underdog upset. A week after the Jets stunned the Bengals as 11-point underdogs, the Jaguars one-upped them and beat the Bills as 14.5-point underdogs. The Bills and Bengals both find themselves in difficult position heading into the back half of the season. Buffalo is only a half game up on the Patriots in the AFC East while the Bengals loss to the Browns dropped them down to tenth place in the AFC.

Now that we move toward Week 10, it’s time for some power rankings. Below we’ve ranked the teams based on spread differential. We took the pre-game point spread at DraftKings Sportsbook and added in the point differential from the game. For example, the Jets closed as 10-point underdogs against the Colts and lost the game by 15 points. For the Jets spread differential, we added -15 to +10. For the Colts spread differential, we added 15 to -10.

Point differential is a helpful tool for figuring out the best and worst teams. However, point spread can offer a little more context to how good or bad teams might be. We see a lot of the usual suspects up top, with Arizona and Tennessee leading the way. Buffalo remains high up thanks to some previous big wins to help cushion an ugly loss as a huge favorite. The Eagles are the big outlier thanks to their big blowout win two weeks ago. That’s certainly one of the downsides to this kind of power ranking.

NFL Power Rankings ahead of Week 10

2021 NFL power rankings, Week 10

Rk Team Record Spread differential Point differential LW
Rk Team Record Spread differential Point differential LW
1 Arizona Cardinals 8-1 +89.5 +122 1
2 Tennessee Titans 7-2 +53.0 +44 7
3 Buffalo Bills 5-3 +51.0 +117 2
4 New England Patriots 5-4 +44.0 +60 8
5 Dallas Cowboys 6-2 +36.0 +49 3
6 Philadelphia Eagles 3-6 +35.0 +9 6
7 New Orleans Saints 5-3 +33.0 +46 5
8 Indianapolis Colts 4-5 +32.0 +32 9
9 Cincinnati Bengals 5-4 +25.5 +33 4
10 Denver Broncos 5-4 +23.5 +34 16
11 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6-2 +15.5 +77 12
12 Seattle Seahawks 3-5 +10.0 +12 13
13 Las Vegas Raiders 5-3 +7.5 +7 11
14 New York Giants 3-6 +4.0 -37 20
15 Los Angeles Rams 7-2 +1.0 +65 10
16 Cleveland Browns 5-4 +0.5 +28 24
17 Minnesota Vikings 3-5 +0.5 +3 17
18 Baltimore Ravens 6-2 -2.0 +26 14
19 Green Bay Packers 7-2 -3.0 +19 19
20 Los Angeles Chargers 5-3 -4.5 -2 21
21 Pittsburgh Steelers 4-3 -9.0 -8 18
22 Carolina Panthers 4-5 -13.5 -12 15
23 Houston Texans 1-8 -27.0 -130 23
24 Chicago Bears 3-5 -30.0 -74 25
25 Atlanta Falcons 4-4 -32.5 -45 26
26 Jacksonville Jaguars 2-6 -34.0 -77 30
27 San Francisco 49ers 3-5 -40.0 -17 22
28 Detroit Lions 0-8 -45.5 -110 27
29 Washington 2-6 -49.5 -71 29
30 Kansas City Chiefs 5-4 -59.0 -6 31
31 Miami Dolphins 2-7 -61.0 -87 32
32 New York Jets 2-6 -71.0 -107 28

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