To put it nicely, we’re sick of talking about Tom Brady. Realistically, we’ve been sick of Brady for a while now, right? Oh. you’re a Tom Brady fan? Sorry, we’re not sorry. Anyway, the race for NFL MVP in 2021 is thinning out heading into Week 15. We have a better sense of which players will still be in consideration down the stretch and try and snatch the award away from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB. Let’s take a look at the NFL MVP odds on DraftKings Sportsbook and break things down.
NFL MVP favorites
Brady continues to lead the pack and is the favorite heading into Week 15. The Bucs pulled off a home win over the Buffalo Bills and fellow MVP candidate Josh Allen, helped his cause despite taking the L. Allen had 105 rushing yards and a TD to go with 308 yards and 2 TDs through the air. Still, it was too little too late for Allen. The Bills are underperforming and while it isn’t all Allen’s fault, he isn’t lifting the team to a division title. Brady and the Bucs will cruise to the NFC South title and potentially a top 2 seed in the conference. The Bills may not even make the playoffs at this point. The Bucs QB accounted for 363 yards and 2 TDs, adding another TD on the ground in the Week 14 win over Buffalo and Tampa Bay’s schedule the rest of the season is a cake walk. It will be difficult to overtake Brady at his point for MVP.
With that said, there is still a little guy named Aaron Rodgers. The Green Bay Packers won a shootout over the Chicago Bears 45-27 on Sunday Night Football. It was arguably Rodgers’ best game of the season with 4 TDs and 341 passing yards. This performance firmly gets Rodgers back into MVP contention. It could come down to who wins down the stretch and has a higher seed. The Packers have a tougher schedule than the Bucs, but that could play in Rodgers’ favor if Green Bay beats the Ravens, Browns and Vikings. Just don’t have the same showing on special teams.
Rodgers is the reigning MVP and the Packers are also in contention for the top overall seed in the NFC. Rodgers will really have to crush it down the stretch to have the numbers to compare to last season. Even so, you can justify him as MVP if the Packers keep it up. The issue is having the narrative and the media behind him while hoping Brady slips up in the final four games. The Bucs’ schedule could prevent that and Rodgers would be worthy, but not able to beat out Brady.
NFL MVP sleepers
There are a few names worth mentioning here and two who are playing on Monday Night Football. So instead, we’ll focus on the one who had a massive performance on Sunday. Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert had another incredibly efficient game in a blowout win over the New York Giants. That isn’t saying much considering the opponent, but it’s the NFL, you can’t blame Herbert for the Giants sucking.
Herbert threw for 3 TDs and close to 300 yards on a near perfect game. It was impressive given the Chargers were missing top WR Keenan Allen and RB Austin Ekeler was banged up during the game. The Chargers improved to 8-5 and are likely heading to the postseason so long as Herbert keeps this up. It’s even more impressive Herbert didn’t suffer the fateful sophomore slump. He’s on pace to set career highs in pretty much all categories from his rookie season. Herbert feels like the best long-shot bet at this point in the season.
The other two are Kyler Murray and Matthew Stafford. Whoever ends up victorious on Monday Night Football could claw back into the MVP convo. At the end of Week 13, Murray was 10/1 and Stafford was 16/1 to win MVP. Murray has the better shot given the Cardinals standing in the NFC and the possibility of being the No. 1 overall seed. The missed games hurt but Murray has been great in the games he’s played. Big games in wins over the Rams and Dallas Cowboys in a few weeks would go a long way in Murray jumping Allen and ending up in the top 3 of odds with Brady and Rodgers.
Stafford has a case because he’s likely the only QB in the hunt who can compete with Brady’s stat line. Stafford has a shot to lead the NFL in passing yards and TDs while throwing fewer picks with a higher passer rating than Brady. The issue is wins and the Rams have faltered since starting the season 7-1. Still, if LA can rebound and make the playoffs comfortably while picking up this win on MNF vs. the Cards, Stafford will have head-to-head wins over Brady and Murray. Staff is the true dark horse at this point.
Here’s a look at the top candidates for MVP. Check out full MVP odds at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Tom Brady: -150
Aaron Rodgers: +600
Kyler Murray: +750
Matthew Stafford: +1400
Patrick Mahomes: +1400
Dak Prescott: +1600
Justin Herbert: +1600
Josh Allen: +2000
Jonathan Taylor: +2000
Cooper Kupp: +5000
Lamar Jackson: +6500
Derek Carr: +10000
Kirk Cousins: +10000
Jalen Hurts: +10000
Joe Burrow: +10000
Mac Jones: +10000
Ryan Tannehill: +10000
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