To kickoff Week 15 in the NFL, we have the Kansas City Chiefs going on the road to play the Los Angeles Chargers on Thursday Night Football. The Chiefs (9-4) are riding six-game win streak after defeating the Las Vegas Raiders 48-9 last week at Arrowhead. The Chargers (8-5) have won two straight games after defeating the New York Giants 37-21 last week. Odds and splits below are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Betting the spread: The Chiefs are three-point favorites. 84% of the handle and 80% of bets are being placed on the Chiefs to cover.
Is the public right? It is tough to bet against the Chiefs right now, who are averaging 27.2 points per game in their last six games. Kansas City has also stepped it up on defense as they’ve held their last three opponents under 10 points. The Chiefs are 4-2 against the spread in their last six games and 3-2 ATS when they are the road favorite this season.
The Chargers, however, have won two-straight and three out of their last four games to keep them in striking distance for the AFC West crown. Los Angeles defeated Kansas City 30-24 earlier this season in Arrowhead, when it looked like the Chiefs were headed into a tailspin. The Chargers are 3-1 ATS as an underdog this season and 3-4 ATS at home. That being said, I think the public is on the right side with the Chiefs.
Betting the over/under: The point total is installed at 52.5. 88% of the handle and 83% of bets are being placed on the over.
Is the public right? If the Chiefs were playing any other offense than the Chargers, then I’d say that the under is in play. However, Los Angeles is averaging 30.4 points per game over their last five games. When these two rivals squared off at Arrowhead in Week 3, the total points scored was 54.
The point total has gone under in six of Kansas City’s last eight games, while it was has gone over in five of the Chargers’ last seven games. With these two quarterbacks in Pat Mahomes and Justin Herbert, you have to expect we will see a ton of yards and a couple of touchdowns passes tonight. Follow the public and take the total.
Betting the moneyline: The Chiefs are road favorites with moneyline odds at -170. Moneyline odds for the Chargers are at +150. 79% of the handle and 72% of bets are being placed on the Chiefs to win.
Is the public right? This seems like a good spot to fade the Chiefs, but I think they beat the Chargers at home to kickoff Week 15. Both offenses are playing well, along with each team’s defense. However, I’m still not sold on the Chargers’ run defense and I believe that KC can take advantage of that with Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Darrel Williams.
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