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NFL MVP tracker: Patrick Mahomes interesting sleeper for award after Week 16

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers remains the favorite to win NFL MVP heading into Week 17. We break down the odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes rolls out to throw against Pittsburgh Steelers outside linebacker Alex Highsmith during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.  Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

There are two weeks left in the 2021 NFL season and it’s looking like the MVP race has pretty much been decided. Despite what anyone did on Sunday, Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers remains the favorite to win the award heading into Week 17. At this point, it’s hard to view anyone as a threat to Rodgers other than himself. That doesn’t mean we can’t look at the odds as a whole and pick out a few angles the final two weeks. Let’s take a look.

NFL MVP favorites

Rodgers and Tom Brady remain the betting favorites heading into Week 17. Rodgers was great vs. the Browns. Brady was OK in a win against the Panthers. The Bucs QB didn’t hurt himself but also didn’t help himself enough. The thing is time. Rodgers has two games left against weak opponents and can seal up the NFC’s top seed. Brady would need help (from the Vikings and/or Lions), which isn’t what you want in December. To make things worse, Rodgers even picked up some narrative after passing Brett Favre for most TDs in Packers’ history. It’ll take a bit of a miracle for Brady to overtake Rodgers at this point.

So if that’s the case, why even talk about anyone else? Because it’s fun, duh. Patrick Mahomes, Jonathan Taylor and Matt Stafford were the other three players behind A-Rod and Brady at 10/1 to win MVP heading into the week. Mahomes makes the biggest move with 3 TDs in a blowout win over the Steelers. The Chiefs are heading toward a pretty remarkable finish to the season while securing the top seed in the AFC. Kansas City has won 8 games in a row to move to 11-4.

Taylor is still somewhat alive given he continues to perform well while the Colts win. He did get some help from QB Carson Wentz and the passing game in Week 16 vs. the Cardinals. JT needed a few more TDs to help his MVP case. As a RB, it’ll be hard to justify him winning MVP. We talked a bit about the previous RB MVPs in the NFL, and all of them had to have historic seasons in order to win.

Stafford is cooked. He led the Rams to a road win over the Vikings, which was big. He also threw 3 picks while the running game and defense actually led the team. Stafford may have the stats and the Rams will be a playoff team, but he made too many mistakes this week.

NFL MVP sleepers

JOE BURROW QUESTION MARK. Does one game make that big a difference? Burrow had perhaps the best of any player in 2021. He threw for 525 yards and 4 TDs against a supposedly good Baltimore Ravens defense. No, but really, there’s no way Burrow wins MVP. Although, he does have a big matchup vs. Mahomes and the Chiefs next week. A big game and a win will give Burrow some more hype.

Anyway, Mahomes is the real sleeper at this point. As was mentioned above, the Chiefs could end the season on a 10-game winning streak. Mahomes likely does more on offense Sunday against the Steelers if they weren’t so awful. He’s up over 4,000 passing yards and 30 TDs on the season, which is low by his standards. The INTs also don’t help. Still, the results on the field are there and Mahomes could play himself into being an MVP finalist.

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills picked up a big win over the New England Patriots to overtake the AFC East lead. Allen three for over 300 yards with 3 TDs and 60+ rushing yards. He’s back in the conversation with Mahomes and Brady to see who backs up Rodgers on the odds board.

Here’s a look at the top candidates for MVP. Check out full MVP odds at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Aaron Rodgers: -175
Jonathan Taylor: +600
Tom Brady: +750
Josh Allen: +1200
Patrick Mahomes: +1200
Dak Prescott: +1800
Cooper Kupp: +1800
Joe Burrow: +3500
Matthew Stafford: +5000
Justin Herbert: +6500

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