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Baylor vs. Oklahoma State picks and best bets for the Big 12 Championship

The Baylor Bears and Oklahoma State Cowboys meet this week in the Big 12 Championship. We break down all you need to know, including best bets, for the matchup.

Oklahoma State Cowboys cornerback Christian Holmes celebrates after an Oklahoma Sooners tackle during the second half at Boone Pickens Stadium. Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports

The Big 12 Championship Game is set for Saturday in Arlington, TX, as the No. 5 Oklahoma State Cowboys will battle the No. 9 Baylor Bears inside of AT&T Stadium for the conference crown. The game will kick off at noon ET on ABC.

Oklahoma State (11-1, 8-1 Big 12) finally got one over on Oklahoma in the notoriously one-sided Bedlam Rivalry last Saturday, surviving a chaotic battle for a 37-33 win to close the regular season. Turnovers, missed field goals, safeties, muffed punts, this game had all of the weirdness you’d expect from this rivalry. That muffed Oklahoma punt return in the fourth quarter allowed for the Cowboys to take over deep into OU territory, setting up Jaylen Warren’s three-yard touchdown run to take the lead. OSU won despite only holding possession for 24 minutes in the ballgame.

By virtue of that Oklahoma State victory, Baylor (10-2, 7-2 Big 12) was able to clinch a spot in Saturday’s title game. The Bears finished off its regular season last week with a 27-24 victory over Texas Tech, a game where it sat on the ball for a good chunk of the action. Quarterback Blake Shapen did a decent job in place of starter Gerry Bohanon, throwing for 254 yards and two touchdowns. Bohanon was absent due to a hamstring injury and is considered day-to-day heading into Saturday’s title game.

This is a rematch from their matchup on October, a game that saw Oklahoma State walk away with a 24-14 victory. The Cowboys won in spite of quarterback Spencer Sanders throwing three interceptions.

Here’s all the data you’ll want, and a pick for the game!

SP+ Rankings

Baylor: 18th overall, 32nd offense, 18th defense
Oklahoma State: 14th overall, 57th offense, 5th defense

Injury update

Baylor

QB Gerry Bohanon Day-to-day - Hamstring

Oklahoma State

TE Braden Cassity Questionable - Leg

WR Langston Anderson Out indefinitely - Undisclosed

ATS/Total

Against The Spread

Baylor: 8-4 ATS
Oklahoma State: 9-2-1 ATS

Total

Baylor: Over 6-6
Oklahoma State: Over 4-7-1

Current lines at DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: Oklahoma State -6
Total: 46
Moneyline: Oklahoma State -240, Baylor +195

Opening line: Oklahoma State -6
Opening total: 47.5

Weather

Indoors at AT&T Stadium

The Pick

Oklahoma State -6

Oklahoma State is gunning for a spot in the College Football Playoff and will lean on its defense to bring them to the promise land. Defensive coordinator Jim Knowles has one of the best units in the nation, limiting opponents to just 4.1 yards per play and boasting a nation-best 76.28% stop rate on third downs.

OSU stifled Baylor in the last meeting between these two teams and with Bohanon’s status in question for the Bears, it’s be wise to lean on the Cowboys to cover here.

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