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How public is betting and DFS considerations for Kelvin Gastelum vs. Ian Heinisch

Kelvin Gastelum and Ian Heinisch meet at middleweight on the main card of UFC 258 on February 13th. We break down how the betting public is picking the fight and the DFS pricing from DraftKings.

 In this handout image provided by UFC, Alexa Grasso of Mexico punches Ji Yeon Kim of South Korea in their flyweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at UFC APEX on August 29, 2020 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

In the second middleweight bout on the main card, Kelvin Gastelum will fight Ian Heinisch. Gastelum enters as the notable favorite with the odds currently set at -225. He is receiving 59% of the handle and 68% of the bets.

Gastelum has a professional fighting record of 16-6 (1 NC) and has lost three-straight matches. Despite not having a winning result, he is still ranked ninth in the middleweight division. The 28-year-old last fought in July at UFC Fight Night 172, where he lost to Jack Hermansson in Round 1 by submission.

Heinisch walks into the octagon with a professional fighting record of 14-3 and ranked 15th in the middleweight division. Just like his opponent, Heinisch hasn’t fought since the summer. The 32-year-old was suppose to fight Brendan Allen in November, but the fight was scrapped because Heinisch tested positive for COVID-19. Nevertheless, “The Hurricane” is the underdog (+175) only receiving 41% of the handle and 32% of bets.

Here are the odds and betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook for Kelvin Gastelum vs. Ian Heinisch at UFC 258 on February 13th.

Odds and Betting splits

Kelvin Gastelum: -225 (59% of action, 68% of bets)
Ian Heinisch: +175 (41% of action, 32% of bets)

Winning Method

Kelvin Gastelum By Decision: +110 (10% of action, 43% of bets)
Kelvin Gastelum By KO, TKO or DQ: +400 (47% of action, 13% of bets)
Kelvin Gastelum By Submission: +800 (2% of action, 0% of bets)
Ian Heinisch By Decision: +350 (12% of action, 36% of bets)
Ian Heinisch By KO, TKO or DQ: +650 (27% of action, 7% of bets)
Ian Heinisch By Submission: +1000 (2% of action, 0% of bets)
Tie: +6600 (0% of action, 0% of bets)

DraftKings DFS Values

Kelvin Gastelum: $8,800
Ian Heinisch: $7,400

Between these two ranked fighters, the best play in DFS is Ian “The Hurricane” Heinisch. He is averaging 64.3 fantasy points per fight, but has gone over that total in two of his last four fights. Against Meerschaert in June, Heinisch scored 109 fantasy points as he record a first round knockout. He’s better at grappling than Gastelum with 1.22 takedowns per 15 minutes. Gastelum is the better fighter, but if Heinisch can hang in their for the entire five rounds, then he’ll be worth the salary.

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