The UFC is back at the APEX in Las Vegas for its second PPV event of the year. UFC 258 starts at 7 p.m. with two early preliminary bouts on UFC Fight Pass, followed by the four prelim fights at 8 p.m. ET, and then five fights on the main card starting at 10 p.m. The preliminary and main card will be streamed exclusively on ESPN+.
The main card is led by a main championship title fight featuring Kamaru Usman and Gilbert Burns. Usman enters the octagon as the welterweight champion and ranked fifth in the pound-for-pound rankings, while Burns is the No. 1 contender at welterweight. We are going to breakdown the odds on that fight and a couple others on Saturday’s card that may be of interest. As always, odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Kamaru Usman vs. Gilbert Burns
We will end UFC 258 on Saturday night with a championship fight at welterweight between Usman and Burns. Usman is one of the best mixed martial artists in the UFC and has a professional record of 17-1. “The Nigerian Nightmare” enters the bout as the favorite (-278), while receiving 50% of the handle and 60% of the bets.
However, the overall splits for this match is not what we are focusing on. Instead, we will look at the winning method splits for this championship fight. The method that has the best odds is Usman by decision (+115), which is also receiving 25% of the handle and 39% of the bets.
In Usman’s last five bouts, he has won four of them by unanimous decision. The other winning method was a technical knockout in Round 5 against Colby Covington at UFC 245. Out of his 17 career wins, nine of them have come by decision.
Usman vs. Burns UFC 258 winning method splits
| Outcome | Odds | % Handle | % Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Odds | % Handle | % Bets |
| Gilbert Burns By KO, TKO or DQ | +750 | 12% | 13% |
| Kamaru Usman By Decision | +115 | 25% | 39% |
| Gilbert Burns By Decision | +550 | 3% | 19% |
| Kamaru Usman By Submission | +1800 | 5% | 6% |
| Gilbert Burns By Submission | +700 | 41% | 10% |
| Tie | +6600 | 3% | 2% |
| Kamaru Usman By KO, TKO or DQ | +225 | 11% | 11% |
Maycee Barber vs. Alexa Grasso
The co-main event for UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns is a tremendous ranked women’s flyweight bout between Barber and Grasso. The 22-year-old Barber enters as a slight underdog (+105), but she is receiving 71% of the handle and 73% of the bets. “The Future” has a professional fighting record of 8-1 and is ranked 10th in the flyweight division. Her only professional loss came last year at UFC 246, where she lost by unanimous decision to Roxanne Modafferi. Outside of that result, she has five wins via KO/TKO, two wins via submission, and a win by decision.
Alexa Grasso is a solid fighter with a record of 12-3 and ranked 15th in the women’s flyweight division. However, she does not have many dominant victories as eight out of her 12 wins came by decisions. The last time she pulled out a win via KO/TKO was back in 2014 at Invicta FC 10. Hence why, if Grasso does win the match, the oddsmaker believe it will be by decision at -106 (4% of the action, 43% of the bets).
Maki Pitolo vs. Julian Marquez
In the first fight on the main card for UFC 258, we have Maki Pitolo taking on Julian Marquez in a middleweight bout. This matchup is intriguing in that we haven’t see Marquez fight in 31 months due to a significant shoulder injury.
We would’ve saw him late last year in his return to the octagon but there was a weight-cutting issue with his opponent and the fight was canceled. As of right now, “The Cuban Missile Crisis” is a slight favorite (-177) over Pitolo. Marquez is receiving 52% of the handle and 55% of the bets.
Pitolo has lost two-straight bouts, one by unanimous decision and the other by Round 1 submission. “Coconut Bombz” odds sit +145, while also receiving 48% of the handle and 45% of the bets. When you look at both fighters and what they’ve done recently, it doesn’t come as a huge surprise to see the action and bets so close together.
UFC 258 betting splits
| Fights | Odds | % Handle | % Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fights | Odds | % Handle | % Bets |
| Gillian Robertson | +115 | 27% | 37% |
| Miranda Maverick | -143 | 73% | 63% |
| Philip Rowe | +110 | 34% | 42% |
| Gabriel Green | -137 | 66% | 58% |
| Brian Kelleher | +195 | 37% | 32% |
| Ricky Simon | -250 | 63% | 68% |
| Andre Ewell | +120 | 60% | 38% |
| Chris Gutierrez | -157 | 40% | 62% |
| Mallory Martin | -148 | 21% | 55% |
| Polyana Viana Mota | +118 | 79% | 45% |
| Jimmie Rivera | -150 | 60% | 38% |
| Pedro Munhoz | +120 | 40% | 63% |
| Uriah Hall | -134 | 65% | 63% |
| Chris Weidman | +110 | 35% | 37% |
| Belal Muhammad | -455 | 79% | 74% |
| Dhiego Lima | +325 | 21% | 26% |
| Rodolfo Vieira | -400 | 60% | 75% |
| Anthony Hernandez | +300 | 40% | 25% |
| Julian Marquez | -177 | 52% | 58% |
| Maki Pitolo | +145 | 48% | 42% |
| Bobby Green | -265 | 59% | 70% |
| Jim Miller | +210 | 41% | 30% |
| Ian Heinisch | +175 | 42% | 32% |
| Kelvin Gastelum | -225 | 58% | 68% |
| Kamaru Usman | -278 | 50% | 60% |
| Gilbert Burns | +220 | 50% | 40% |
| Maycee Barber | +105 | 71% | 73% |
| Alexa Grasso | -127 | 29% | 27% |
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