:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/68857060/1303248405.0.jpg)
There are six games on the schedule in the NBA for Monday, February 22nd. There aren’t many marquee matchups and if we take a look at the initial lines and betting percentages, we see that there also aren’t a ton of heavy favorites. The best game on tap is the Portland Trail Blazers heading to the desert to take on the Phoenix Suns in a battle for the 4-seed in the West. Let’s take a look at how the public is betting the slate and point out some notable trends.
Spread analysis
The most amount of handle and bets are coming in on the Miami Heat, who are finally getting back on track with back-to-back wins. They’ll take on the Oklahoma City Thunder on the road as 6.5 points favorites. The Thunder ruled C Al Horford out, which makes this easier for the Heat to cover. My concern would be the Thunder never really getting any respect. OKC is better than lines suggest and have surprised teams this season. The Heat had been underwhelming but have momentum. My lean would be a bet on the 1Q or 1H or in-game lines. The live line has already moved to -7.
Over/Under analysis
Two games have heavy action on the over while one game is leaning more on the under. The Heat-Thunder game has a very low line set at 213.5, which has 83 percent of the bets. The line has actually dropped down to 212.5 despite this action, so that seems favorable enough. We don’t see much defense in the NBA and neither team has been great defensively. This would be a tough call. The Heat-Lakers game over the weekend was very low scoring with players missing. Horford and Tyler Herro could both be out. I can see the reason why the line is moving down.
The other game getting action on the over is Blazers-Suns, which isn’t tough to wrap your head around. The game getting under action in Bulls-Rockets. Chicago has a good offense and Zach LaVine should eat up the Rockets without Victor Oladipo. Houston hasn’t played the past two games and had scored under 100 points in three games during a seven-game losing streak. The line was up at 227.5 and is down to 226. The Bulls just don’t play defense so if this number keeps coming down, the over may be the pivot.
Moneyline analysis
Normally, we see at least a few teams up getting 80+ percent of the bets on the ML. Monday night is not the case. There are a few teams getting in the 70 percent range but nothing too high. This is a bit surprising because the Utah Jazz are facing the Charlotte Hornets. Nothing against the Hornets but the Jazz have been on a tear and are at home favored by double digits. You’d think plenty of bettors would be jumping at the Jazz ML, which is at -1000. Oh wait, that’s why there aren’t bets going there. Utah can be used in a big parlay but that’s about it.
NBA Betting Splits, Monday, Feb. 22
| Teams | Point Spread | % Handle | % Bets | Total Points | % Handle | % Bets | Moneyline | % Handle | % Bets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teams | Point Spread | % Handle | % Bets | Total Points | % Handle | % Bets | Moneyline | % Handle | % Bets |
| CHI Bulls | -1 | 78% | 68% | Over 227.5 | 54% | 30% | -114 | 81% | 76% |
| HOU Rockets | 1 | 22% | 32% | Under 227.5 | 46% | 70% | -106 | 19% | 24% |
| MEM Grizzlies | 5 | 22% | 30% | Over 230.5 | 89% | 69% | +160 | 19% | 28% |
| DAL Mavericks | -5 | 78% | 70% | Under 230.5 | 11% | 31% | -195 | 81% | 72% |
| CHA Hornets | 12.5 | 41% | 51% | Over 228.5 | 64% | 58% | +575 | 62% | 30% |
| UTA Jazz | -12.5 | 59% | 49% | Under 228.5 | 36% | 42% | -835 | 38% | 70% |
| MIA Heat | -6.5 | 89% | 78% | Over 213.5 | 60% | 83% | -200 | 79% | 79% |
| OKC Thunder | 6.5 | 11% | 22% | Under 213.5 | 40% | 17% | +165 | 21% | 21% |
| POR Trail Blazers | 6 | 36% | 49% | Over 230.0 | 93% | 83% | +200 | 50% | 42% |
| PHO Suns | -6 | 64% | 51% | Under 230.0 | 7% | 17% | -245 | 50% | 58% |
| WAS Wizards | 7 | 52% | 46% | Over 226.0 | 34% | 51% | +205 | 32% | 23% |
| LA Lakers | -7 | 48% | 54% | Under 226.0 | 66% | 49% | -250 | 68% | 77% |
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL).Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA/MI), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (NH/CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA) or call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN).21+ (18+ NH). CO/IL/IN/IA/NH/NJ/PA/TN/VA/WV/MI only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.