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It will never be more challenging to predict the NCAA Tournament field than in 2021. Some teams on the bubble are over 25 games played, while other are short of 14. How do you weight conferences when there’s been so little inter-conference play?
To help figure it out, we choose the Wisdom of The Crowd to decide which teams are in and which teams are out of the 2021 NCAA Tournament.
Similar to Nate Silver’s model of predicting elections, we’ll take the data from five bracketologists and update it each week. All bracket makers shall be counted equally, and we’ll ask expert for their 16 teams on the bubble: The last eight in the NCAA Tournament in their estimation, and the first eight out.
Some list this data automatically with their bracket projections, but for the others we’ll reach out to directly to get their most accurate picture.
Our “model” is pretty simple: 16 points for being the eighth-from-last team in the NCAA tournament, to one point for having seven teams between you and even making the First Four. If a team has an average of 9.0 points or higher, they should reach the NCAA field according to the averages.
Because some teams will avoid the last-eight-in all-together, while other brackets will have that same team on the bubble, we’ll mark teams “Safe” that are ahead of the 16 points available on the top “next four in” line.
Our bracketologists:
Joe Lunardi, ESPN.com
Chris Dobbertean, Blogging The Bracket
Patrick Stevens, Washington Post
Shelby Mast, Bracketwag.com
Kerry Miller, Bleacher Report
Below are the bubble selections for all our tracked bracketologists:
2021 NCAA Tournament Bubble February 23
| Points | ESPN | Blogging the Bracket | Washington Post | Bracket Wag | Bleacher Report |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | ESPN | Blogging the Bracket | Washington Post | Bracket Wag | Bleacher Report |
| 16 | Maryland | Seton Hall | St. Bonaventure | St. Bonaventure | Louisville |
| 15 | Louisville | San Diego State | Rutgers | VCU | Drake |
| 14 | Seton Hall | Xavier | Maryland | Colorado State | Minnesota |
| 13 | VCU | Indiana | Saint Louis | Wichita State | Colorado State |
| Last Four In | |||||
| 12 | Indiana | Duke | Indiana | Seton Hall | VCU |
| 11 | Xavier | Stanford | Seton Hall | Maryland | Indiana |
| 10 | Minnesota | VCU | Stanford | Minnesota | St. Bonaventure |
| 9 | Colorado St. | Drake | Colorado State | Duke | Seton Hall |
| First Four Out | |||||
| 8 | Stanford | UConn | Drake | Indiana | Duke |
| 7 | UConn | Colorado St. | Minnesota | Syracuse | Saint Louis |
| 6 | Duke | Minnesota | Richmond | UConn | Wichita State |
| 5 | Richmond | Richmond | UConn | Georgia Tech | Michigan State |
| Next Four Out | |||||
| 4 | Saint Louis | St. John's | Duke | St. John's | Syracuse |
| 3 | SMU | Saint Louis | Utah St. | Stanford | Stanford |
| 2 | Utah St. | Michigan State | Western Kentucky | Ole Miss | Richmond |
| 1 | Georgia Tech | Western Kentucky | Syracuse | Utah St. | Utah St. |
Here are the averages for the teams on the bubble. Remember an average of 9.0 or better means you should be in the tournament.
Bubble Team Bracketology Averages
| Team | Points | Safe | Average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Points | Safe | Average |
| Louisville | 31 | 3 Safe | 15.50 |
| St. Bonaventure | 42 | 2 Safe AQ | 14.00 |
| Maryland | 41 | 2 Safe | 13.67 |
| VCU | 50 | 1 Safe | 12.50 |
| Seton Hall | 62 | N/A | 12.40 |
| Indiana | 56 | N/A | 11.20 |
| Drake | 32 | 2 Safe AQ | 10.67 |
| Colorado St. | 52 | N/A | 10.40 |
| Minnesota | 47 | N/A | 9.40 |
| Duke | 39 | N/A | 7.80 |
| Stanford | 35 | N/A | 7.00 |
| SMU | 29 | N/A | 5.80 |
| Saint Louis | 27 | N/A | 5.40 |
| UConn | 26 | N/A | 5.20 |
| Richmond | 18 | N/A | 3.60 |
| Syracuse | 12 | N/A | 2.40 |
| St. John's | 8 | N/A | 1.60 |
| Michigan State | 7 | N/A | 1.40 |
| Utah St. | 7 | N/A | 1.40 |
| Georgia Tech | 6 | N/A | 1.20 |
| Western Kentucky | 3 | N/A | 0.60 |
Since last week, North Carolina has removed all doubt with a 35-point win over Louisville. Boise State did too with a pair of wins over Mountain West rival Utah State.
It’s not surprising that Saint Louis as a potential at-large bid from a mid-major conference has the biggest Delta of all the teams in the field: They range from sixth-team out to avoiding the First Four all-together across all brackets. How the selection committee views mid-major teams with quality records and wins will be the key to determining who’s in and who’s out of the field.