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The bid thieves are here, and they are malicious.
Georgetown’s rising up from the No. 8 seed to Big East Champions at Madison Square Garden knocked someone off the bubble, and then last night Oregon State came out of the No. 5 seed by beating back their rival Oregon in the semifinals, and Colorado in the championship.
Both teams had as much chance as your Saturday YMCA pick-up team of making the tournament before they got their trophies, but that means two less teams that will be in the Big Dance because of it. Here’s who got affected according to our five bracketologists we’ve been tracking throughout #BracketSeason
Similar to Nate Silver’s model of predicting elections, we take the data from five bracketologists and update it each week. All bracket makers shall be counted equally, and we’ll ask expert for their 16 teams on the bubble: The last eight in the NCAA Tournament in their estimation, and the first eight out.
Some list this data automatically with their projections, but for the others we reach directly to directly to get their most accurate picture.
Our “model” is pretty simple: 16 points for being the eighth-from-last team in the NCAA tournament, to one point for having seven teams between you and even making the First Four. If a team has an average of 9.0 points or higher, they should reach the NCAA field according to the averages.
Because some teams will avoid the last-eight-in all-together, while other brackets will have that same team on the bubble, we’ll mark teams “Safe” that are ahead of the 16 points available on the top “next four in” line.
Our bracketologists:
Joe Lunardi, ESPN.com
Chris Dobbertean, Blogging The Bracket
Patrick Stevens, Washington Post
Shelby Mast, Bracketwag.com
Kerry Miller, Bleacher Report
Below are the bubble selections for all our tracked bracketologists for Selection Sunday, March 14:
Bracketology March 14
| Points | ESPN | Blogging the Bracket | Washington Post | Bracket Wag | Bleacher Report |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | ESPN | Blogging the Bracket | Washington Post | Bracket Wag | Bleacher Report |
| 16 | Maryland | Michigan State | Maryland | UCLA | Maryland |
| 15 | VCU | UCLA | VCU | Maryland | VCU |
| 14 | Michigan State | VCU | Louisville | Michigan State | Michigan State |
| 13 | UCLA | Maryland | Michigan State | Louisville | Louisville |
| Last Four In | |||||
| 12 | Syracuse | Syracuse | UCLA | VCU | UCLA |
| 11 | Louisville | Drake | Drake | Syracuse | Utah State |
| 10 | Drake | Louisville | Utah State | Drake | Drake |
| 9 | Utah State | Utah State | Wichita State | Utah State | Syracuse |
| First Four Out | |||||
| 8 | Wichita State | Saint Louis | Syracuse | Wichita State | Colorado State |
| 7 | Saint Louis | Wichita State | Mississippi | Colorado State | Wichita State |
| 6 | Colorado State | Mississippi | Saint Louis | Boise State | Mississippi |
| 5 | Mississippi | Boise State | Colorado State | Saint Louis | Saint Louis |
| Next Four Out | |||||
| 4 | Western Kentucky | Duke | Boise State | Memphis | Boise State |
| 3 | Memphis | Colorado State | Xavier | Mississippi | Memphis |
| 2 | Boise State | Memphis | Seton Hall | Seton Hall | Xavier |
| 1 | Duke | Seton Hall | Duke | St. John's | Seton Hall |
Here are the averages for the teams on the bubble. Remember an average of 9.0 or better means you should be in the tournament.
Team Totals March 14
| Team | Points | Average |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Points | Average |
| Maryland | 76 | 15.2 |
| VCU | 71 | 14.2 |
| Michigan State | 71 | 14.2 |
| UCLA | 68 | 13.6 |
| Louisville | 62 | 12.4 |
| Syracuse | 52 | 10.4 |
| Drake | 52 | 10.4 |
| Utah State | 48 | 9.6 |
| Wichita State | 39 | 7.8 |
| Saint Louis | 31 | 6.2 |
| Colorado State | 29 | 5.8 |
| Mississippi | 27 | 5.4 |
| Memphis | 12 | 2.4 |
| Boise State | 21 | 4.2 |
| Western Kentucky | 4 | 0.8 |
- If Cincinnati beats Houston for the American Conference Championship as a 13.5 point underdog, it looks like Utah State will be the team knocked off the bubble. But that would also make them the first standby team, and they’d likely still get in the tournament anyway.
- No team got harmed more by bid steals than Saint Louis, who went from an 8.0 to a 6.2 the last two days. If Georgetown and Oregon State lose, they’re right in the mix. As it is they’ll need to hit a 35-footer as the horn sounds to make it.
- Syracuse’s loss in the ACC quarterfinals to Virginia apparently didn’t hurt, as they’ve actually moved up the ladder as other teams have moved down. Between Friday and today they went from 9.2 to 10.4.
- UCLA’s appearance on this board is pretty preposterous, but four straight losses for a team that was likely to wear white jerseys in the first round has put them in a situation where they need to at least be a smidge worried before the announcement.
- The A-10 game is still happening right now, but this assumes St. Bonaventure beats VCU, who leads late in the second half.