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No. 5 Villanova vs. No. 1 Baylor odds history ahead of Sweet 16 matchup

We take a look at the odds history for the Baylor Bears and Villanova Wildcats ahead of their matchup in the Sweet 16 of the 2021 NCAA Tournament.

The Baylor Bears after their win over the Wisconsin Badgers in the second round of the 2021 NCAA Tournament at Hinkle Fieldhouse. The Baylor Bears won 76-63. Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports

The Baylor Bears and the Villanova Wildcats are two of the few teams that seemed to breeze through the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament on their way to the Sweet 16. The top-seeded Bears currently sit as a seven-point favorite, with the point total at 140.5 and the moneyline at +260 for Villanova and -335 for Baylor.

No. 1 Baylor Bears: 24-2 - 14-10 ATS

November/December: 7-1 ATS
January: 5-3 ATS
February: 1-2 ATS
March: 3-4 ATS
Vs. Total: 16-10 Over
In NCAA Tournament: 1-1 ATS

In terms of overall performance, Baylor didn’t really struggle against anybody all season. But against the spread, especially in the later weeks of the season, they weren't really able to cover games. Over the final two months of the regular season, the Bears had a losing record against the spread following a three-week pause for COVID-19 after February 2nd.

Five of the team’s nine regular-season losses ATS came against teams that failed to qualify for the NCAA Tournament. Two of their ATS losses and one of their only ML losses came to Oklahoma State, an 83-74 loss in the semifinals of the Big 12 conference tournament. Heading into the NCAA Tournament’s Round of 32, they were on a two-game streak where they failed to cover the spread. A lot of that has to do with the absurd lines the Bears have commanded. Only once time this season has Baylor failed to cover a single-digit spread and they’ve always won ATS when facing a spread of 7.5 or fewer points.

For the point total, the Bears are 10-6 to hit the over this season when the point total is sitting at 140 or more.

No. 5 Villanova Wildcats: 18-6 - 14-10 ATS

November/December: 6-3 ATS
January: 2-1 ATS
February: 4-3 ATS
March: 2-3 ATS
Vs. Total: 13-11 Over
In NCAA Tournament: 1-1 ATS

The Wildcats have the same overall record ATS as their opponent does and are also 1-1 since March Madness began. Still, that’s a bit deceiving. Where Baylor would routinely see spreads in the 20-or-more point range, the Wildcats only had that twice. Over the last month of the season, dating back to February 13, they’ve been double digit favorites twice, with neither of those games coming against NCAA Tournament qualifying squads.

Villanova has seen the point total hit the over six times this season when the number was set at 140 or above. They’ve hit the under three of the last five times the point total was set at 140 or above, and have hit the under three times in their last five contests overall. Villanova is 332nd in pace in college basketball, which keeps the totals low anyway.