There’s a PAC-12 showdown in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament between the USC Trojans and the Oregon Ducks on Sunday night.
Oregon knocked off a heavy favorite in Iowa in the Round of 32, while the Trojans came away with a win over the Kansas Jayhawks. This wasn’t a matchup many expected, but it should be fun to watch. USC is currently a slight 2.5 point favorite and the point total is sitting at 139. The Trojans moneyline is coming in at -143 while the Ducks are +120.
No. 7 Oregon: 21-6 (15-12 ATS)
December: 4-4 ATS
January: 2-2 ATS
February: 4-5 ATS
March: 5-1 ATS
Vs. Total: 18-9 Over
In conference: 10-10 ATS
In NCAA Tournament: 1-0 ATS (won VCU game via forfeit)
The Ducks came into the NCAA Tournament on fire, winning seven of their last eight overall and have covered the spread in six of their last eight. They had the benefit of being fresh in their Round of 32 game as well after VCU was forced to withdraw because of COVID issues.
Oregon has only been considered an underdog four times this season and have gone 2-2 against the spread in those contests, including their last game where they were a five-point dog and came away with the outright win. These two teams met once during the regular season and Oregon came into the contest as a 3.5 point underdog. They ended up losing that game by 14 points and were held to just 58.
The Ducks slot in at 33rd in the NCAA NET rankings and went 2-3 against Quad 1 opponents. During the regular season, they faced off with just one team ranked in the top-25, which was their big loss against the Trojans.
No. 6 USC: 24-7 (18-13 ATS)
November/December: 4-3 ATS
January: 5-4 ATS
February: 6-3 ATS
March: 3-3 ATS
Vs. Total: 15-15-1 Over
In conference: 12-10 ATS
In NCAA Tournament: 2-0 ATS
USC is much trickier to get a read on than the Ducks, especially from a point-total perspective. They’ve split their season straight down the middle when it comes to the over or under. But the last time these two teams played, the under hit. The line was set at 140, but the combined score of the two teams came in a full 10-points away from hitting at 130. Over their last five games, the under and over have both hit twice, with their Round of 32 game being a push, so it’s not like they’re hot one way or another heading into the Sweet 16.
The Trojans are 1-1 ATS this season when the spread is 2.5 or lower in their favor and are 1-3 ATS when the line is 2.5 or lower in either direction. Their only win in that category came against Kansas last weekend, where they entered the game as a 1.5-point favorite.
During their campaign, the Trojans faced off with two ranked opponents and went 1-1 in those games. They finished the regular season ranked 19th in the NCAA NET rankings and were 3-4 against Quad 1 teams.