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How the public is betting No. 5 Villanova vs. No. 1 Baylor in NCAA Tournament Sweet 16

Villanova and Baylor face off in the Sweet 16 round of the 2021 NCAA Tournament. We break down how the public is betting the game at DraftKings Sportsbook and whether or not they’re right.

Baylor Bears guard MaCio Teague dribbles while defended by Wisconsin Badgers guard D’Mitrik Trice during the second half in the second round of the 2021 NCAA Tournament at Hinkle Fieldhouse. Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports

The Baylor Bears appear to be back to midseason form after a pair of impressive wins to get themselves to the Sweet 16. Meanwhile, the Villanova Wildcats advanced through the first two rounds despite being without one of their best players in Collin Gillespie.

Before we get into the betting splits and where bettors are going with their money for this game, take a look at the odds history for both teams throughout the season and how they’ve done compared to oddsmakers’ projections.

Here are the odds and bet splits for No. 5 Villanova vs. No. 1 Baylor in the Sweet 16 of the 2021 NCAA Tournament from DraftKings Sportsbook:

Against The Spread

Villanova: +7.5 (31% of handle, 30% of bets)
Baylor: -7.5 (69% of handle, 70% of bets)

Is the public right?

Yes, the favorite is the play in this spot, so I’ll side with the public. After a first round blowout, the Bears looked very much like a national title contender in their win over the Wisconsin Badgers in the second round. Villanova beat No. 12 and No. 13 seeds to get here, and it feels like playing without Gillespie will catch up with them in this spot.


Villanova: +250 (30% of handle, 26% of bets)
Baylor: -335 (70% of handle, 74% of bets)

Is the public right?

Yes, I would be stunned if Baylor does not come out on top in Saturday’s game. The Bears did not play their best toward the end of the regular season, coming out of a COVID-19 pause, but they have turned the corner and should be the favorite to advance to the Final Four from this region.

Point Total

Over: 141.0 (80% of handle, 83% of bets)
Under: 141.0 (20% of handle, 17% of bets)

Is the public right?

For the first time, I’ll be going against the public in this matchup. Villanova already plays at a very slow pace compared to much of the country, and they will likely try to limit possessions even more against a Baylor team that’s much more talented than them. With less possessions, less shots are attempted, and less points are scored. Let’s go with the under.

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