We’ve wrapped up the Sweet 16 round of the 2021 NCAA Tournament and have our matchups set for the Elite Eight. We break down the Elite Eight games and how the public is betting them over on DraftKings Sportsbook.
No. 12 Oregon State vs. No. 2 Houston
Point spread: Oregon State (+7.5) is getting 62% of handle and 60% of bets
Point total: Over 129 is getting 60% of handle and 63% of bets
Moneyline: Houston (-345) is getting 71% of handle and 62% of bets
Is the public right?
In terms of the point spread, I’d have to agree with the public. The Beavers are clearly playing their best basketball of the season right now, which is great. They’ve taken down some pretty good teams so far this Tournament as well. Both Houston and OSU play slowly, so it’s unlikely to be a blowout in either direction.
For the point total, 129 is very low for an NCAA Elite Eight game, but neither team even hit that in their Sweet 16 game. Plus with the pace of play we talked about earlier for both squads, possessions will be limited, so every missed shot will hurt the potential for hitting the over. So we’re going to disagree with the public on this one.
For the money line, yes the public is right. Houston is the better team here and will be the best team Oregon State will see in the Tournament so far. Unfortunately, that means Cinderella’s run will most likely finally end on Monday.
No. 3 Arkansas vs. No. 1 Baylor
Point spread: Baylor (-8) is getting 75% of handle and 67% of bets
Point total: Over 148 is getting 54% of handle but just 34% of bets
Moneyline: Baylor (-400) is getting 59% of handle and 75% of bets
Is the public right?
The public is spot on here. The point spread is low for a Baylor game as they usually win games by double digits. Arkansas has been winning, but they’ve been having a hard time scoring. On average this season they’re scoring 81 points per game, but in the last two rounds of the Tournament, they’ve averaged just 70.
Baylor shouldn’t have much of an issue scoring, but they play at a slow pace, the 179th fastest in the nation. So, while they’ll get points when they take shots, they’ll drain the shot clock down and get a ton of offensive rebounds, limiting chances for a big point total. Between that and the Razorbacks’ recent scoring struggles, the under is the move.
Baylor will win this game, so the public is right on the moneyline, too. The Bears have been dominant in the tournament, winning every game by double digits, where Arkansas has had to survive two close games against opponents they should have easily defeated.
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