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What films people are betting on for 2021 Best Picture at the Oscars

Nomadland is a heavy favorite to win Best Picture at the 2021 Oscars, but as we saw last year there are films that can come from behind late. Can The Trial of The Chicago 7 or Minari pull an upset at the Academy Awards?

Frances McDormand won her second best actress Oscar in 2018 for ”Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. ROBERT DEUTSCH/USA TODAY via Imagn Content Services, LLC

There’s one film with a stranglehold on the 2021 Oscars wagering community, and it’s the Chloe Zhao’s Nomadland, which is the heavy favorite to sweep all the major categories.

The blend of scripted dialogue and real, actual travelers from the American West is a visual and cinematic achievement, with two-time Oscar winner Frances McDormand nominated for her third statuette. Her performance as the wandering, troubled Fern is powerful, and the kind of film that tends to receive the benefit of the doubt from the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences.

The Aaron Sorkin vehicle (can a director and screenwriter have a vehicle?) is the second choice, but still a big underdog. The trial of the seven protesters of the 1968 Democratic National Convention in Chicago include major figures in the counter-culture movement, including Abbie Hoffman and Bobby Seale.

The other potential darkhorse is Minari, the story of a Korean family building a farm in 1980s Arkansas. Lee Isaac Chung directed and wrote the film, which encapsulated the struggle of a foreign family in the American South. If it were to pull the upset, it would be the second-straight Korean cast to win the Oscar for Best Picture after Parasite in 2020.

Below are the updated odds, as well as the betting splits on each film, from DraftKings Sportsbook:

2021 Oscars Best Picture Bet Splits

Film Odds % of handle % of bets
Film Odds % of handle % of bets
Minari +1400 36% 28%
The Trial of the Chicago 7 +600 21% 18%
Nomadland -670 19% 8%
Judas & the Black Messiah +3300 9% 18%
Mank +3300 6% 8%
Promising Young Woman +1700 5% 6%
The Father +10000 2% 11%
Sound of Metal +5000 1% 3%

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