The 2021 NFL Draft won’t make or break a team’s chances to win the Super Bowl, but it can give them a nudge one way or the other. We can’t expect teams who are drafting a quarterback early to win a championship in their first season, but a team that needs a few pieces or even just depth, can get a lot of immediate help from the draft.
We take a look at DraftKings Sportsbook’s current odds to win the big game and how much the draft could give them a boost.
Kansas City Chiefs +500
Injuries to Kansas City’s offensive line hurt their chances in the Super Bowl last season, as Patrick Mahomes was harassed by the Buccaneers defense all game. For the Chiefs, they already got their first round pick for this season by trading it away to the Ravens for Pro Bowler Orlando Brown. That move didn’t change their odds, as they were already at the top of the heap and had released Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz, but it likely kept them from dropping. With the 58th pick being their first, we’ll likely see their +500 Super Bowl odds hold.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +750
The Bucs have brought back every starter from their Super Bowl win and they are still below the Chiefs in their odds to win it all. It can be argued if that is accurate or not, but there is no doubt Mahomes is the driving factor in that equation. But, Tampa Bay does have the last pick of the first round, which if used correctly, should help in their quest to run it back. They could also use the pick to look toward the future. An edge rusher is in the cards with Jason Pierre-Paul coming off surgery and on the final year of his contract. That pick won’t move the needle on the odds, but adding depth to a top defense should help.
Green Bay Packers +1100
The Packers could see some real movement on the books if they can land a top wide receiver. Last season we saw their odds to win the Super Bowl take a fall after drafting a backup running back and quarterback in the first two rounds. But they did end up having a strong season, as Aaron Rodgers went on to win the MVP award. But there’s no doubt they still needed receiver help, as they had to rely too heavily on Davante Adams once again. With the 29th pick, they aren’t likely to land one of the top three receivers, but there is good receiver depth and Rashod Bateman, Kadarius Toney, Elijah Moore, Rondale Moore, Dyami Brown, or Terrace Marshall could all push the odds in their favor. Of course, they could end up drafting another quarterback instead.
Baltimore Ravens +1300
The Ravens have two first round picks after trading away Brown to the Chiefs. They’re likely not going to make a splash offensive skill player pick, but a first round receiver would probably give them a boost in the odds. But, they will likely look at defense after losing Matt Judon and Yannick Ngakoue this offseason. Grabbing an offensive lineman and linebacker/edge rusher sounds more like the Ravens. Those picks would likely keep their odds the same.
Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson
These two picks are already baked into the odds for the Jacksonville Jaguars at +7000 and New York Jets at +8000, but both have so much draft capital, that they could still see their odds rise. Offensive players move the needle more than defensive, so the Jets going quarterback then running back in the first round would get attention. The Jaguars would be in the same boat, as a Lawrence/top receiver combo could boost public perception and their odds.
Mac Jones, Trey Lance, Justin Fields
San Francisco 49ers +1600
If the 49ers end up drafting Jones or Fields, we could see a boost in odds compared to Lance. Lance is seen as needing more time to adjust to the NFL. But the 49ers also have fairly good odds already, as their defense and coach have them with the seventh-best odds to win the Super Bowl without a known quantity at quarterback.
New England Patriots +2800
The Patriots probably get the biggest boost in the odds of any team if they end up grabbing a Top 5 quarterback in this draft. The mystique around coach Bill Belichick would convince many that he could turn someone like Fields into a Super Bowl winner his rookie year. And he just might.
Denver Broncos +6000
UPDATE: The Broncos just dealt a sixth round pick to acquire Teddy Bridgewater. We’ll wait for any odds movement.
There aren’t many believers in Drew Lock, but the Broncos overall, have one of the better rosters in the league. An addition of one of the top quarterbacks to compete with Lock would likely push their odds up a notch.
Cincinnati Bengals +8000
The Bengals get a healthy Joe Burrow back at quarterback this season. He will be joined by a top offensive lineman or a top pass catcher with the fifth pick. It will be tough to get that pick wrong, so their Super Bowl odds should see a slight boost no matter who they take.
Atlanta Falcons +6000
The Falcons have the No. 4 pick and multiple options. They could draft a quarterback of the future, trade back for draft capital or take a player like tight end Kyle Pitts. If they go with an immediate playmaker like Pitts, their odds should get a boost, but if they go with a quarterback who might not play this season, their odds will stay the same. This draft will tip the Falcons’ hand or is it wing, anyway, we should know if they are looking to win now or in the future.
Super Bowl Odds
Super Bowl 56 Odds
|WAS Football Team||+5000|
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