How the public is betting No. 2 Houston vs. No. 1 Baylor in NCAA Tournament Final Four

The No. 2 seed Houston Cougars out of the Midwest region will play the No. 1 seed Baylor Bears out of the South region in the national semifinal at 5:14 p.m. ET on Saturday at Lucas Oil Stadium.

The Cougars defeated the surging No. 12 seed Oregon State Beavers 67-61 in the Elite Eight to advance to the Final Four. Houston has also won 11-straight dating back to the regular season. while the Bears took down the No. 3 seed Arkansas Razorbacks 81-72 in the Elite Eight earlier this week. Baylor has been one of the best teams in the country, winning four straight and having a stellar record of 26-2.

Here are the odds and bet splits for No. 2 Houston vs. No. 1 Baylor in the Final Four of the 2021 NCAA Tournament from DraftKings Sportsbook:

Against The Spread

Houston: +5 (13% of handle, 22% of bets)
Baylor: -5 (87% of handle, 78% of bets)

Is the public right?

For once the public is correct between the Cougars and Bears. Baylor has a record of 6-3 against the spread in neutral site games and have won three-straight games ATS in the tourney. The only game that the Bears did not cover was against the Hartford Hawks, where they won 79-55 and the line was -25.5.

The Bears are the better all-around team with three dynamic guards that can give Houston trouble on the perimeter. Meanwhile this will only be the second game this season that the Cougars have been underdogs. The first game happened on Nov. 29 against the Texas Tech Red Raiders, where they were +3 dogs and end up winning.

Moneyline

Houston: +185 (26% of handle, 37% of bets)
Baylor: -225 (74% of handle, 63% of bets)

Is the public right?

Despite this hefty price on the Bears, this is the correct pick. The Cougars have struggled at times in the tourney, putting them in precarious situations. Houston almost lost to the No. 10 seed Rutgers Scarlet Knights in the Round of 32. As for Baylor, they’ve played close to perfect in the tournament and haven’t lost a step. Scott Drew’s team will be ready to go and should come away with the victory.

Point Total

Over: 134 (60% of handle, 68% of bets)
Under: 134 (40% of handle, 32% of bets)

Is the public right?

In the Cougars’ last five games, they have gone over 134 points in two games. Additionally, the total has gone under in four of Houston’s last five contests when they are the underdog. The Baylor Bears have gone over the point total in three out of their last five games. And the total has gone over in 13 out of the 16 games when Baylor has been named the favorite.

That being said, the public is right. Houston only allows 55.8 points per game. But they haven’t faced a team like Baylor, who is averaging 83 points per game this season. They also have three players scoring in double figures, and lead the nation in shooting 41.6% from three-point range.

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