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Offensive Rookie of the Year odds and predictions after Day 1

Who will win the 2021 NFL OROY? Before the draft, we take a look at the odds and who might take the hardware.

In this handout photo provided by the National Football League, quarterback Trevor Lawrence poses after being selected with the first overall pick by the Jacksonville Jaguars in the 2021 NFL Draft on April 29, 2021 in Seneca, South Carolina.
In this handout photo provided by the National Football League, quarterback Trevor Lawrence poses after being selected with the first overall pick by the Jacksonville Jaguars in the 2021 NFL Draft on April 29, 2021 in Seneca, South Carolina.
Photo by Logan Bowles/NFL via Getty Images

The first day of the NFL draft is over and the offensive players taken will all get more than their fair shake at winning playing time in their rookie year. But there are a choice few who won’t have to win anything, instead, they will be thrust into the fire and if they come out stronger and with good statistics, they might win the coveted offensive rookie of the year award.

Last season Justin Herbert beat out Justin Jefferson, so maybe this year Trey Lance beats out Trey Sermon? Is that how this works? Probably not. Getting the ball in your hands is one of the biggest hurdles for a rookie, so running backs and quarterbacks have the upper hand. We’ll take a look at the odds and breakdown our favorite picks.

DraftKings Sportsbook has the odds, and we’ve got a look at favorites and sleepers to win in 2021.

Favorites

Trevor Lawrence +300

You can’t really get past Lawrence being the favorite on the page and in real life. He is NFL ready, will have an offense built around him and get to air it out from Day 1. Even an average season could win the award, as an average season for an NFL quarterback is full of big stats in this era.

Trey Lance +500

I like Justin Fields, but don’t trust the Bears to use him as well as they should to start. They could even give Andy Dalton the Week 1 start. But I do trust Kyle Shanahan to have Lance ready to produce early on, even though he is a rawer talent than Fields. The 49ers offense allows for simple plays that lead to big yardage. You don’t have to be in his prime Peyton Manning to execute and Lance has all the tools to put numbers up on the ground as well. Shanny with a running quarterback could be special.

Sleepers

Mac Jones +1500

Jones is NFL ready and lands with a coach who can get wins from a stone. Jones won’t be asked to win games by himself, as the Patriots should have better players around him this season. And a rookie quarterback getting to the playoffs is a big chip for the OROY award. And Jones’ ability does mesh well with Belichick’s offensive philosophy. As long as they can keep his pocket clean, Belichick and Josh McDaniels could easily remote control his new QB much the way Sean McVay did with Jared Goff early on.

Najee Harris +1400

Harris’s odds should be higher. He’s going to get a ton of work this season as the three-down back for Pittsburgh. Ben Roethlisberger’s arm almost fell off last year as the running game was non-existent. Mike Tomlin will want that to change drastically this year. With one of the best defenses in the league, the Steelers should be in situations where Harris can get 20+ touches a game and that spells statistics.

Javonte Williams +3300

Williams hasn’t been taken yet, but I could see him landing on the Dolphins, which would probably raise these odds up closer to Harris’. This is the time to get in on him! He won’t be used like Harris to start, but he has plenty of ability and if he lands on the Dolphins, he should be RB1 to start the season.

Odds

Trevor Lawrence +300
Justin Fields +400
Trey Lance +500
Zach Wilson +1000
Kyle Pitts +1100
Ja’Marr Chase +1300
Najee Harris +1400
Mac Jones +1400
Jaylen Waddle +1600
DeVonta Smith +2000
Travis Etienne +2500
Kadarius Toney +3300
Javonte Williams +3300
Rashod Bateman +3300
Trey Sermon +4000
Elijah Moore +5000
Terrace Marshall Jr. +6600
Rondale Moore +6600
Michael Carter +10000
Kenneth Gainwell +10000

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