Moneyline pick, best player prop for Reds vs. Rockies on Thursday

What will happen when one of the NL’s best offenses travels to the game’s best hitting environment to take on the team with the worst record and pitching staff in the National League? Fireworks. That’s what is probably in store for the Cincinnati Reds this weekend at Coors Field. The Reds have sent out 48 home runs, the second-most in the NL, while the Colorado Rockies are 13-24 and own a 5.09 team ERA.

Reds vs. Rockies, 8:40 p.m. ET, ESPN+

Moneyline pick: Reds (-148)

Luis Castillo entered 2021 as arguably a top-10 pitcher in baseball, but he has been a mess for most of this season; hitters have really pummeled his fastball and sinker. But I have to believe that Castillo, who posted a 3.35 ERA over 260 innings between 2019 and 2020, will get his current 6.42 ERA straightened out soon. Coors Field isn’t where pitchers go to get right, but I would certainly bet on him over Rockies SP Chi Chi Gonzalez, who has been a below-average pitcher in the Majors since 2016.

Player Prop: Trevor Story OVER 0.5 RBIs (+125)

Story is on pace for 18 HRs right now; that’s not what his fantasy owners paid for when they took him in the first round of drafts this year. He isn’t hitting the ball with tremendous authority, but otherwise, his profile looks pretty similar to seasons past, so a turnaround is probably in the cards. For tonight, I think these are good odds for a proven run producer who has slashed .304/.418/.565 over his past 13 games. Story has 15 RBIs in 21 home games this year.

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