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Best lineup strategy for Heat vs. Bucks Game 1 NBA Showdown

We take a look at the Showdown contest on DraftKings Game 1 of the Heat-Bucks first round NBA playoff series, giving you Captain’s Picks and who to fade.

Jrue Holiday #21 of the Milwaukee Bucks is defended by Bam Adebayo #13 of the Miami Heat during the second half of a game at Fiserv Forum on May 15, 2021 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images

To open up the NBA playoffs on Saturday, we have the Miami Heat taking on the Milwaukee Bucks. The No. 3 seed Bucks won the season series (2-1) over the No. 6 seed Heat. This game features a few great DFS plays that could end up making or breaking your lineup. Many DFS players will opt to put Giannis Antetokounmpo or Jimmy Butler in their captain spots, which would not be bad ideas.

However, where you can really separate yourself from your opponent is with the FLEX picks, in which both teams have some interesting choices. Let’s go over the Showdown fantasy outlook for the game for contests on DraftKings.

Captain’s Picks

Jrue Holiday ($13200) — When it comes to a captain pick for the Bucks, many DFS users will go with either Antetokounmpo or Khris Middleton. Both guys are the top options for Milwaukee and can stuff the boxscore with ease.

However, we are going to shy away from those two players and instead play Jrue Holiday. In his first year with Milwaukee, the veteran point guard is averaging 17.7 points, 6.1 assists, 4.5 rebounds and 37.1 fantasy points per game. In his last game against Miami, he scored 45.3 fantasy points (20 points, 5 rebounds, 10 assists). It was Holiday’s second 40-point outing in his last five games.

Kendrick Nunn ($8100) — Nunn at the captain spot would be a sleeper option for a team like the Heat. If you opt to go with the second-year guard, it could give you some more cap space to fill your lineup. Nunn is averaging 14.6 points, 3.2 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 25.3 fantasy points per game this season. In his last five games, he took his game another level, which is good news for the Heat. Nunn averaged 17.2 points, 3.8 rebounds, 1.6 assists in 29 minutes per game (26.4 DKFP).

FLEX Plays

Donte DiVincenzo ($6200) — This was a tough decision as you could either go with the former Villanova standout DiVincenzo at this value or Bobby Portis, who is valued at $5000 and been a vital scoring option off the bench.

But for this exercise, we are going to stick with DiVincenzo, who is averaging 10.4 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 25.3 fantasy points per game. The combo guard plays an integral role in Bucks’ starting lineup and could end up being an x-factor in Game 1. He has scored in double figures in six out of his last seven games.

Duncan Robinson ($7200) — Just like DiVincenzo, Robinson could be the x-factor for the Heat on Saturday and in this series. The three-point marksman is averaging 13.1 points per game and shooting 40.8% from distance this season. In his last five games for the Heat, he is averaging 24.9 fantasy points per game, which is higher than his season average — 23.0.

The Bucks are ranked 15th against opposing SGs (OPRK) this season and are allowing teams to shoot 38.4% from three-point range this season, which is horrible. This could be a prime spot to play Robinson.

Fades

Goran Dragic ($5800) — Dragic becomes the fade option here, especially if Nunn and Tyler Herro are producing for Miami’s backcourt. This season, the veteran guard has played solid, averaging 13.4 points, 4.4 assists, 3.4 rebounds, and 25.6 fantasy points per game. In his last five games, Dragic is recording 25.7 DKFP per game, which is not bad.

The Outcome

The Bucks come into Game 1 as five point favorites over the Heat. It should be a fun game that will be dictated by either Milwaukee’s pace or the Heat’s defense. If Miami can contain the Bucks’ three-point shooting and unlock theirs on the other end, then the Heat can steal the first game.

That being said, I don’t see the Heat taking Game 1 on Saturday afternoon. It will be too much Giannis, Middleton, and Holiday, who will prove to be a major upgrade.

Final score: Bucks 118, Miami 112