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Best lineup strategy for Heat vs. Bucks NBA Showdown in 2021 NBA playoffs

We take a look at the Showdown contest on DraftKings for Game 2 of the Heat-Bucks first round NBA playoff series, giving you Captain’s Picks and who to fade.

Miami Heat shooting guard Duncan Robinson dribbles the ball up the court during the second half against the Philadelphia 76ers at Wells Fargo Center.  Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

Game 1 between the Milwaukee Bucks and Miami Heat was a thriller, and the matchup was decided by a Khris Middleton game-winner in overtime. The Eastern Conference powerhouses will run it back on Monday for Game 2 at 7:30 p.m. ET, and things could go down to the wire again. DraftKings will have DFS contests centered around the matchup, and we broke down some ideal strategies worth considering ahead of tip-off here.

Captain’s Picks

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($18,900) will almost certainly be the highest raw scorer in this contest, so it’s hard to pass up on playing him as a captain. No player has higher scoring and rebounding upside, but Jimmy Butler ($15,300), Bam Adebayo ($14,700) can match him on a good day. Captaining Antetokounmpo will limit your ability to get creative with your flex plays, and it’s unlikely that Butler and Adebayo will replicate their abysmal shooting performances from Game 1.

Duncan Robinson ($8,700) was unexpectedly brilliant in Game 1 because of his hot shooting and he carried the Heat’s offense while Butler and Adebayo struggled. Miami made use of a ton of screens on Brook Lopez in Game 1, and Milwaukee consistently went under screens when those plays were drawn up. As a result, Robinson hit seven of his 13 attempts from beyond the arc and scored 24 points. Four of Robinson’s seven triples were assisted by Butler or Adebayo, so grouping all three together could be great for building an ideal lineup while avoiding gambling on cheap players to fill out your entries.

FLEX Plays

Miami has excellent defenders to throw on Antetokounpo and Middleton, but its defensive backcourt remains extremely week because of Robinson, Tyler Herro ($7800), Goran Dragic ($7,400), and Kendrick Nunn ($5,200). There’s no telling how the Heat will go about dividing up minutes, but they’ll likely go with the hot hand.

Brynn Forbes ($1,800) was the only reserve guard who played for Milwaukee in Game 1, so you should expect to see plenty of Jrue Holiday ($9,200) and Donte DiVincenzo ($6,600) for the Bucks. Pivoting off of Antetokounmpo and Middleton will be difficult, but both of Milwaukee’s starting guards are sure to be heavily involved. Holiday is the ideal play, as he’s eclipsed 20 points in seven of his last eight games. Playing him with DiVincenzo will give you plenty of variance for GPPs.

Fades

Herro played less than Dunn and Dragic in Game 1, but remains more expensive than both. The second-year guard has been streaky and has fallen short of 20 DKFP in four of his last 10 games. Banking on him could pay off in a big way, but recent performances make that seem unlikely.

The Outcome

The Heat outscored the Bucks by 45 points from beyond the arc in Game 1 and still lost by two. The disparity in outside shooting probably won’t be so large in Game 2, so Milwaukee has a good shot at holding off the visitors again at Fiserv Forum as 5-point favorites. Expect another defensive battle.

Final score: Bucks win 110-103