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Will the Atlanta Falcons go over or under their win total in 2021?

The Falcons are on the precipice of a rebuild and that could mean it’s a good time to take the under on their win total.

 Matt Ryan #2 of the Atlanta Falcons throws a pass against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the first quarter in the game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on December 20, 2020 in Atlanta, Georgia. Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

The Atlanta Falcons were the kings of giving up fourth quarter comebacks last season and finished with their worst record since 2013 and finished last in the NFC South for the first time since 2007. After a 0-5 start, they let head coach Dan Quinn go and will now turn over the keys to Arthur Smith in 2021. Smith previously served as the offensive coordinator for the Tennessee Titans.

We’ll take a look at the latest DraftKings Sportsbook lines and predict if the Falcons can beat their 2021 win total. The odds below are as of May 25, 2021.

NFC South win totals

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11.5 (Over -125, Under +103)
New Orleans Saints 9 (Over +103, Under -125)
Carolina Panthers 7.5 (Over +110, Under -134)
Atlanta Falcons 7.5 (Over -137, Under +113)

Notable offseason moves

The Falcons drafted TE Kyler Pitts with the No. 4 pick and brought in RB Mike Davis and WR/RB Cordarrelle Patterson.

The team let RBs Todd Gurley, Brian Hill and Ito Smith walk, while also losing C Alex Mack, DE Charles Harris, DB Damontae Kazee, S Ricardo Allen and S Keanu Neal.

Atlanta Falcons prediction: UNDER 7.5

The Falcons didn’t do much this offseason to give me hope for a big turnaround. And now it looks like WR Julio Jones is on his way out. Calvin Ridley and rookie TE Pitts are instant offense, but Pitts will have growing pains, while the running game will remain sluggish with Davis as the lead back.

I do think if they somehow keep Jones around that their chances to top 7.5 wins goes up, but at this point I don’t believe he’ll play for the Falcons in 2021. Arthur Smith may help them from huge slides in the fourth quarter, but this team is starting a rebuild even if they don’t want to admit it. That means a slow start could have them looking to maneuver for a top quarterback in the 2022 draft.

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