Who’s going to win the NL Cy Young Award this season? Well, the answer seems pretty obvious after one month. But the right choice isn’t also the most valuable choice for bettors. Let’s dive into these NL Cy Young odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and highlight where the value lies.
To no one’s surprise, Jacob deGrom (-118) is an enormous favorite for this award now that April is in the books. He was named NL Pitcher of the Month on Monday, which is somehow the first time the two-time Cy Young winner has earned that honor in his career.
Anyway, his numbers are just stupid. He’s on pace for about 350 strikeouts and 25 walks. He had a three-start stretch in April in which he struck out at least 14 batters in each. The two solo home runs he’s allowed account for the only earned runs on his ledger, and he has yet to give up more than five hits in any start. Will deGrom win the Cy Young this year? The better debate is will he be named the NL’s Most Valuable Player?
Milwaukee Brewers ace Corbin Burnes probably still doesn’t have the name recognition he deserves among casual baseball fans. But it’s nice to see that his Cy Young odds have vastly improved, from +4000 on Opening Day to +500 now. Burnes’ strikeout-to-walk ratio is, well, infinity, because he has yet to walk anyone in 29.1 innings. He has 49 strikeouts and with three more K’s, Burnes will set the all-time record for the most strikeouts without a walk to begin a season. But Burnes isn’t all about strikeouts; his ground-ball rate is north of 50 percent. And his FIP and expected ERA are both lower than his current ERA or 1.53, so Burnes has actually been a little unlucky, believe it or not.
While deGrom is more than likely going to run away with this award, Clayton Kershaw stands out to me as the best value pick on the board. His odds have dropped since Opening Day from +2000 to +2600. That’s odd because he has been outstanding. Now, he hasn’t been invincible like Clayton Kershaw circa 2014, and his counting stats will be blunted a little bit because the Dodgers will make sure not to overwork him. But entering his start on Tuesday, the 33-year-old has a 2.09 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP and has really found his way to dominate with decreased velocity. By season’s end, Kershaw could be viewed as the best starting pitcher on the best team in baseball. That’s definitely going to earn the three-time Cy Young Award winner more Cy Young votes.
NL Cy Young Award Odds Movement
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