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Will the Miami Dolphins go over or under their win total in 2021?

After splitting time with Ryan Fitzpatrick under last season, Tua Tagovailoa will be Miami’s starting QB in 2021. Can Tua lead the Dolphins to the playoffs?

Tua Tagovailoa #1 of the Miami Dolphins looks to throw a pass against the Buffalo Bills at Bills Stadium on January 3, 2021 in Orchard Park, New York. Photo by Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images

The Miami Dolphins took a significant leap in Year 2 under head coach Brian Flores. The Dolphins posted their first 10-win season since 2016 and finished in second place in the AFC East.

Despite missing the playoffs, thanks a late-season skid, Miami has a bright future with QB Tua Tagovailoa under center. The Dolphins made it an emphasis this offseason to give Tagovailoa weapons at wide receiver in Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle. If Tua can take that step and the defense performs at a high level, then Miami could make some noise in the AFC this season.

We’ll take a look at the latest DraftKings Sportsbook lines and predict if the dolphins can beat their 2021 win total. The odds below are as of June 1, 2021.

AFC East win totals

Buffalo Bills 11 (Over -106, Under -122)
Miami Dolphins 9 (Over -148, Under +120)
New England Patriots 9 (Over -134, Under +110)
New York Jets 6.5 (Over +112, Under -136)

Notable offseason moves

The Dolphins bought in LB Benardrick McKinney (via trade w/HOU), CB Justin Coleman, QB Jacoby Brissett, RB Malcolm Brown, WR Will Fuller, DB Jason McCourty, OL D.J. Fluker, and drafted WR Jaylen Waddle in the first round of the NFL Draft.

They traded DE Shaq Lawson and OL Ereck Flowers, released S Bobby McCain, LB Kyle Van Noy, and lost QB Ryan Fitzpatrick in free agency.

Miami Dolphins prediction: Over 9

With the Dolphins currently constructed as is, there’s no reason why they cannot win more than nine wins in 2021. Is that good betting value at -148 odds? Not in the least, when you compare it to the under at +120 odds, which brings back a ton of value.

Unlike previous seasons, where Miami finished in third and fourth place, they will now have a tougher schedule in 2021. They’ll have a tough three-game stretch beginning in Week 3 with a road game against the Las Vegas Raiders, with their next two games at home against the Indianapolis Colts and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Then to end the regular season, their last four games will be against the Jets, Saints, Titans, and Patriots. If they can right the ship at the end of the season, unlike they did in 2020, Miami should be in good shape. However, a lot of their success will be on the shoulders of Tua and their running game.

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