11:15 p.m. “I am not going to be the next mayor of New York City,” says Andrew Yang, but Kathryn Garcia justifiably takes the opposite approach with RCV still to come. We haven’t heard from Maya Wiley as of yet.
And Eric Adams gave a speech as the presumptive front-runner for now:
“We know there are going to be layers,” Adams says mentioning second and third choices, “New your city said our first choice is Eric Adams,” he adds, “we’re going to allow them to go through the process and count the ranking.” pic.twitter.com/WRAiEXDrdo— Gwynne Hogan (@GwynneFitz) June 23, 2021
Adams .89, Garcia .08, Wiley .03 as of now.
10:45 p.m. It’s official: Andrew Yang will concede tonight.
Maya Wiley has actually passed Kathryn Garcia in the raw vote total, but not in the betting shops. With 85.09 % of E-Day reporting, Wiley is at 21.14% with Garcia at 20.76%, both trailing Adams at 30.71%.
But at PredictIt, it’s Adams .87, Garcia .08, Wiley .04. Adams has to be thrilled if this lead holds heading into the RCV reallocation.
10:15 p.m. The numbers continue to favor Adams, as he’s at 29.97% to Garcia’s 21.35%, with Maya Wiley closing hard at 20.88% with 79% of election day ballots counted, as well as all early voting.
But allow us to editorialize a bit: Adams being at .84 on PredictIt, with Garcia at .13 and Wiley at .01 is just too big a spread. Is Eric Adams likely the next mayor of New York City? Sure.
But as we’ve seen in mayor’s races before, like the Oakland 2010 election, RCV can have massive implications on outcomes. In that race Jean Quan was elected despite receiving just 24.47% of the first-choice votes in a 10-candidate field. Election night leader Don Perata had 33.73%, but ended up losing by about 2000 ballots of 105,000 cast.
Would Yang and Wiley voters trend towards Adams or the competence-as-platform Garcia as their second choice? The polling is at best inconclusive here, so while Adams likely wins, there’s likely still some value available on Garcia at 7-1 odds or worse.
9:45 p.m. Great point here from the Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman.
Eric Adams in third place in Manhattan but leading in all four outer boroughs is a pretty promising recipe for success in a NYC mayoral primary.— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) June 23, 2021
While as of now Adams leads 82919 to 63929 for Garcia, in Manhattan Garcia actually leads 30423 to 14495. But the Brooklyn Borough President Adams is dominating off the island, as he leads 28803 to 16748 in his home county, and a huge 22177 to 5241 in the Bronx. The last domination north of Manhattan this strong was by the Yankees in the early 50’s.
Adams is at .77 on PredictIt, with Garcia down to .20. And while there are standing offers for Adams at -500 on Betfair right now, no one is choosing to match that market on the other side.
9:35 p.m. One of Andrew Yang’s slogans during the Presidential campaign was “MATH” (Make America Think Harder). But for the former frontrunner in this race, the actual math is looking pretty grim.
We’re only at 1.88% of scanned votes counted, but Yang has just 11.55% of over 257,000 cast. He’s fallen to just .01 at PredictIt, so bettors have him as toast before a quarter of ten on election night. A shocking fall.
It’s basically a two-horse race amongst the bettors between Adams, who sits at .72, while Garcia is at .25. Adams has 28.49% of the vote as of now, and Garcia holds 23.27%.
A bit of conjecture here, but this might be an early night as it looks like everyone else but the top two might be able to concede, while Adams and Garcia will sit on pins and needles for a couple weeks to see how the RCV non-first-place choices shake out.
9:20 p.m. Here’s the link to the live results from the NYC Board of Elections if you want to follow the original tally at home. Remember: Because of ranked-choice voting, we’re not going to know anything official for days. But we might have a good idea of who might be in and who might be out.
Eric Adams surges ahead with what looks like a pretty good portion of the early vote now counted. Garcia has to be happy to be that close, and congrats to Paperboy Love Prince, who is first choice on 747 ballots so far.
The beauty of RCV: Selection your favorite 27-year-old rapper/activist as your first choice is no longer wasting a vote.
9:13 p.m. And as we say that...
Garcia is surging to .30 at PredictIt, while Maya Wiley retreats a bit and Andrew Yang falls from .14 earlier today to .06 now. It looks like the early leader in the race won’t be the winner.
We’re at 1% reporting, so let’s start counting!
NYC Democratic Mayoral Primary Results (9:10PM):— Polling USA (@USA_Polling) June 23, 2021
<1% Reporting / 16,712 Votes
9:00 p.m. The polls are now closed in NYC, and we’ll load the early vote as soon as it’s available here. During the day Kathryn Garcia is up a few points at PredictIt, but not much has moved.
5:30 p.m. It looks like turnout is up with 3.5 hours until the polls close.
#NYCMayor turnout looks pretty decent...— Brandon (@Brand_Allen) June 22, 2021
NYC Democratic primary turnout:
2001: 790K https://t.co/1mb2pYdWYm
12:55 p.m. Here are the current odds at both PredictIt and BetFair to win today’s primary.
Eric Adams -200
Kathryn Garcia +350
Andrew Yang +700
Maya Wiley +1000
Scott Stringer +1600
Shaun Donovan +2500
Ray McGuire +3300
Curtis Silwa +3300
PredictIt (based on $1 futures contracts paid to winning candidate)
Eric Adams .64
Kathryn Garcia .20
Andrew Yang .13
Maya Wiley .09
Curtis Silwa .03
Who will be the big boss in the Big Apple is on the line tonight, as voting in the Democratic primary election for mayor of New York City will complete at 9 p.m. this evening. And DK Nation will be here as the results come in to determine who will be the next leader of North America’s largest metropolis.
While we might not know the winner for quite awhile because no candidate will receive half the votes in the ranked-choice voting system being used, we should start to have a pretty good idea of who will be in contention. However, it could take until July to determine the official winner because of mail-in ballots and multiple cycles of counting due to losing candidate votes being reallocated by RCV.
We’ll be here all night going over the results, and potentially for a couple more days as well, tracking the odds and seeing who will be heading to City Hall next January.