Tracking MLB betting action for Thursday, July 1st

Wednesday in the majors was really good to us as all four of our best bets hit. To start off the day, the Milwaukee Brewers (-148 on the ML) scored 15 unanswered runs after being down 7-0 in the first inning to the Chicago Cubs. After that, the Atlanta Braves (-155 on the ML) pummeled the New York Mets, 20-2, at Truist Park. This was the second time this year that the Braves scored 20 runs. To end the night, the White Sox (-125 on the ML) defeated the Twins 13-3, while Athletics ace Chris Bassitt produced seven strikeouts in 7.0 IP, going over 5.5 at -139, against the Texas Rangers.

What can we do for an encore performance on Thursday? Here we’re going to be tracking all the best MLB picks base on the odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook for Thursday’s baseball action.

MLB picks for Thursday, July 1st - Record YTD (7-2)

Carlos Rodon under 8.5 strikeouts (-118)

As much as I want to play the White Sox moneyline against the Twins, I think the best bet is Carlos Rodon’s strikeout prop. After the first two games of this series, where the White Sox have beat up on the Twins, outscoring them 20-9. I believe we could see a quality pitchers’ duel between him and Berrios.

That being said, I still Rodon will have some success against this Twins’ lineup. The AL Cy Young has gone under 8.5 strikeouts in 7 out of 13 starts this season, which includes four out of his last starts. Rodon will be going up against a Twins’ lineup that is only averaging 8.6 strikeouts per game this season. But that number goes to 9.32 Ks per game on the road, but they’ve only struck out 6 times per games in their last three contests.

Athletics (-167) vs. Rangers

Oakland finally got back into the win column on Wednesday night, thanks to a tremendous outing from ace pitcher Chris Bassitt, who had seven strikeouts in 7.0 IP. Also with the win, the Athletics snapped the Texas Rangers four-game winning streak. Oakland will try to carry that momentum over from last night into this afternoon’s series finale against the Rangers.

The A’s will give the ball to Sean Manaea, who has just been outstanding this season with a 6-4 record and 2.91 ERA. The 29-year-old starting pitcher has held his own at home, which bodes well for Oakland today. Manaea has a record of 4-1 with an ERA of 2.82 in nine starts at the Coliseum. He has allowed six home runs to opposing teams, which might be a cause for concern. But when Manaea is pitching at home, the Athletics are 8-1. Oakland’s offense should be able to handle Rangers starting pitcher Dane Dunning, who is 0-4 with a 7.45 ERA and letting opponents to hit .331 in seven road starts. Unlike the A’s, who seem to play well when Manaea is on the mound, the Rangers are 0-7 when Dunning starts on the road. Back the A’s, despite the high price.

Giants (-150) vs. Diamondbacks

Who doesn’t love some west coast baseball, especially when the game somehow involves the Arizona Diamondbacks? The Diamondbacks have been one of the worst teams in the league and have lost four consecutive games by 2.75 runs per game. The San Francisco Giants, who have been one of the best surprises stories in the majors, are riding a losing streak of their own — three games but could be due for a win tonight. The Giants are 6-0 against the Diamondbacks this season and have Johnny Cueto on the mound.

Cueto is 6-3 with a 3.63 ERA through 12 starts this season. However, the veteran pitcher has not fared well in five road starts — 4.97 ERA and .353 opponents batting average. But San Fran has a 3-2 record in Cueto’s road outing. If Cueto gets knocked around, they should be able to put up runs on Arizona starter Merrill Kelly, who is 4-7 with a 4.73 ERA. Kelly has been a better pitcher at home with an ERA of 3.59, but the Diamondbacks are 1-4 in his last five home starts. The 32-year-old Kelly has faced the Giants twice this season and has an ERA of 6.00.

Corbin Burnes over 7.5 strikeouts (+120)

There’s a good amount of juice on this particular strikeout prop, but when Burnes in on the mound, there’s no such thing as too much juice. He’s been one of the best pitchers in the NL and a strikeout machine for the Brew Crew. Despite a 3-4 record, Burnes still has a 2.53 ERA and 115 strikeouts in 74.2 IP.

The 26-year-old has gone over 7.5 strikeouts in 9 out of his last 13 starts, which includes 2 out of his last 4 outings. One of those came at home against the Pirates on June 12, when he had 8 strikeouts in 4.0 IP. In his four road outings, Burnes has gone over 7.5 strikeouts three times. The Pirates’ offense does not strike out often at 8.27 per game, but that goes up at home to 8.51 at PNC Park.

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