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Predictions, odds, and latest bet splits for UFC 264, McGregor vs. Poirier

We make some picks and include the latest numbers to see how the public is betting UFC 264.

Conor McGregor poses during a ceremonial weigh in for UFC 264 at T-Mobile Arena on July 09, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images

The biggest fight of the year is on tap tonight, as lightweights Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirier headline a pretty shallow card outside of the main event. But there is still plenty of value to be had here, and we look to grind some out cash on an event that doesn’t have much quality competition until the end of the night.

We’ll take a crack at finding some wins below.

Conor McGregor +140 KO/TKO/DQ over Dustin Poirier

The ability of the MMA public to overshift odds in the face of an unexpected result remains undefeated. Conor was better than a 1-2 favorite in January when these two faced off, but now he enters as an underdog after getting caught by Poirier in the second round in January.

The fact McGregor is back in the cage this quickly against the same man that stopped him is a good sign. If he was not in tip-top shape, he wouldn’t take the fight and jeopardize his entire platform and future (it’s easy to forget McGregor won’t be 33 until next week, and still has a long runway of a career ahead of him).

This is a five-round fight, and the Nevada State Athletic Commission should save the money on judges because either way they won’t be needed. McGregor with the value here remains the play, and might be against Charles Oliveira later this year for the belt as well.

Sean O’Malley -295 KO/TKO/DQ over Kris Mouthino

The only thing you need to worry about here is a potential win by submission instead of KO, but it’s overwhelmingly likely O’Malley puts Moutinho down early considering his opponent is 9-4 career, and is making his UFC debut on six days notice.

Mouthino has four stoppages in nine wins on the independent circuit, and has lost two of his last four. I hope he’s got good health insurance.

Yana Kunitskaya +100 over Irene Aldana

Aldana missed weight by four pounds, which shows she’s not in the right place for this bout. Kunitskaya was a bit undervalued anyway, but now she can likely go the distance here and find a win. The Russian at +160 to win by decision is a nice play as well


Here are the complete odds for UFC 264 at DraftKings Sportsbook:

Main event: Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor, lightweight

Dustin Poirier: -139 (49% of action, 50% of bets)
Conor McGregor: +110 (51% of action, 50% of bets)

Winning Method

Conor McGregor By Decision: +700 (5% of action, 10% of bets)
Conor McGregor By KO, TKO or DQ: +140 (47% of action, 32% of bets)
Conor McGregor By Submission: +2000 (5% of action, 9% of bets)
Dustin Poirier By Decision: +550 (3% of action, 5% of bets)
Dustin Poirier By KO, TKO or DQ: +175 (27% of action, 24% of bets)
Dustin Poirier By Submission: +650 (10% of action, 15% of bets)
Tie: +6600 (2% of action, 5% of bets)

UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor main card

Gilbert Burns vs. Stephen Thompson, welterweight

Gilbert Burns: +130 (46% of action, 44% of bets)-
Stephen Thomson: -162 (54% of action, 56% of bets)

Tai Tuivasa vs. Greg Hardy, heavyweight

Tai Tuivasa: -137 (63% of action, 64% of bets)
Greg Hardy: +110 (37% of action, 36% of bets)

Irene Aldana vs. Yana Kunitskaya, women’s bantamweight

Irene Aldana: -124 (58% of action, 53% of bets)
Yana Kunitskaya: +100 (42% of action, 47% of bets)

Sean O’Malley vs. Kris Moutinho, bantamweight

Sean O’Malley: -910 (83% of action, 86% of bets)
Kris Moutinho: +550 (17% of action, 14% of bets)

Preliminary card

Carlos Condit vs. Max Griffin, welterweight

Carlos Condit: +150 (72% of action, 40% of bets)
Max Griffin: -190 (28% of action, 60% of bets)

Niko Price vs. Michel Pereira, welterweight

Niko Price: +141 (33% of action, 38% of bets)
Michel Pereira: -177 (67% of action, 62% of bets)

Ryan Hall vs. Ilia Topuria, featherweight

Ryan Hall: +185 (45% of action, 44% of bets)
Ilia Topuria: -235 (55% of action, 56% of bets)

Trevin Giles vs. Dricus Du Plessis, middelweight

Trevin Giles: -106 (15% of action, 47% of bets)
Dricus Du Plessis: -118 (85% of action, 53% of bets)

UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor early preliminary card

Jennifer Maia vs. Jessica Eye, women’s flyweight

Jennifer Maia: -200 (85% of action, 80% of bets)
Jessica Eye +162: (15% of action, 20% of bets)

Omari Akhmedov vs. Brad Tavares, middleweight

Omari Akhmedov: +142 (61% of action, 40% of bets)
Brad Tavares: -177 (39% of action, 60% of bets)

Zhalgas Zhumagulov vs. Jerome Rivera, flyweight

Zhalgas Zhumagulov: -345 (86% of action, 89% of bets)
Jerome Rivera: +260 (14% of action, 11% of bets)

Hu Yaozong vs. Alen Amedovski, middleweight

Hu Yaozong: +110 (65% of action, 35% of bets)
Alen Amedovski: -136 (35% of action, 65% of bets)

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