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Updated look at NL East standings, best value bet to win based on odds movement

The Braves were favored to win the NL East entering the season, but how have the odds changed heading into the 2021 All-Star break? We break down the movement and identify the best value bets.

Jacob deGrom #48 of the New York Mets pitches in the first inning against the Milwaukee Brewers during game one of a doubleheader at Citi Field on July 7, 2021 in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. Photo by Adam Hunger/Getty Images

Heading into this season, it appeared that the Atlanta Braves were going to win the NL East once again. With the talent that have on offense combined with the free agents signings of Charlie Morton and Drew Smyly, they seemed to be in good shape. But as we get closer to the All-Star break, it’s been the New York Mets, who have jumped to the front of the division and are the favorites to win it, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. Can the Braves get their act together or will the Mets win the division for the first time since 2015. Let’s breakdown it all down below?

1. New York Mets (46-38) —

2. Atlanta Braves (43-44) 4.5 GB

3. Philadelphia Phillies (42-44) 5.0 GB

4. Washington Nationals (42-45) 5.5 GB

5. Miami Marlins (38-49) 9.5 GB

It is the Mets’ division to lose, despite them not having an explosive offense. New York has the best rotation in the NL East led by Jacob deGrom, along with in Marcus Stroman and Taijuan Walker, who have ERAs under 3.00 this season. The Braves and Phillies could catch up to Mets, but each team has their own set of problems to sort through. Atlanta’s starting pitcher has been inconsistent, while the Phillies cannot find solid relievers to hold things down in the bullpen.

NL East Division winner odds

Mets -286
Braves +600
Nationals +700
Phillies +800
Marlins +4000

In the game of baseball, quality starting pitching will get you far. New York has that and could get back Carlos Carrasco and Noah Syndergaard in the second half. If that happens, then the sky is the limit for this team. The Mets started off the season with +140 odds to win the division and are now at -286. The only thing that could New York back is their record on the road, which sits at 19-26. However, they have a great home record at 27-12, which is the best in the NL East.

Betting value: Mets -286

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