Switzerland and Spain face off on Friday, July 2 at 12 p.m. ET in the Euro 2020 quarterfinals. The match will air on ESPN and take place in St. Petersburg, Russia. Spain is a -305 favorite to advance at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Swiss are a +230 underdog.
It’s been a dream scenario for Switzerland as they ended up being able to sneak their way through from the group stage to the knockout rounds with a third-place finish in Group A. Their only win — a 3-1 victory over Turkey — plus a 1-1 draw against Wales was enough to slip through, but their elation soon dwindled when they discovered they’d be playing France in the Round of 16. Defying all odds, they came back from a 3-1 deficit and scored two goals in the last 10 minutes to tie up the game, then went on to defeat the 2018 World Cup Champions in a penalty shootout. Now they turn their focus to Spain in hopes of finding some magic again to keep their Cinderella story alive.
Spain advanced from the group stage in second place, just behind Sweden in Group E. they logged one win in the group, a 5-0 win over Slovakia on the closing day of group play. Their first two matches ended in draws — a 0-0 draw against Sweden and 1-1 against Poland. They took on Croatia in their Round of 16 match, and just when they thought they had it in the bag at 3-1, the Croatians pulled two goals back to send it into extra time. Alvara Morata and Mikel Oyarzabal both scored goals in the first 15 minutes of extra time to send Spain into the quarter finals with a final score of 5-3.
Switzerland vs. Spain
Switzerland: +440 (to advance +230)
Spain: -143 (to advance -305)
Total goals: 2.5 (Over -110, Under -112)
Regular time ML pick: Tie +275
Team to advance pick: Spain -305
Best bet: Over 2.5 goals -110
Spain has proven that they’re not quite the giants they once were, as they stumbled their way through the group stage and blew a 3-1 lead in the Round of 16, almost resulting in an elimination. Switzerland is flying high off their defeat of FIFA’s number-two ranked France and will look for a repeat performance in another situation where they’re highly predicted to lose. Don’t be surprised if regular time ends in a draw, as the Swiss have shown they can push forward late in the game and really put the opposing team on their back foot. Ultimately I think Spain ends up advancing to the quarter finals where they’ll move on to play the winner of Belgium-Italy in the semis. Anything can happen, though, and we could very well see a Switzerland team in the semi finals after all.
Because results are so fickle, the best and safest bet here should be over 2.5 goals — if regular time ends in a 1-1 draw, all it takes is one more goal in extra time from either team to secure the win. With the majority of Round of 16 matches ending up in three total goals or higher, this should be a fairly safe play.
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