clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Why Patrick Mahomes will go under on passing yards, TD prop bets for 2021 NFL season

We take a look at the odds on the table for Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes available on DraftKings Sportsbook and make our predictions ahead of the 2021 NFL season.

NFL: Super Bowl LV-Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is widely regarded is the most electric quarterback in the NFL. Rightfully so, as he’s already been named league MVP, is a Super Bowl champion, and has been named to three Pro Bowls. But with all those accomplishments come lofty expectations.

Here, we’ll take a look at the prop bets on the table for Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes on DraftKings Sportsbook ahead of the 2021 NFL season and make our picks.

Patrick Mahomes player props for 2021 NFL season

5,050 passing yds (Under -115, Over -115)

Our pick: Under

While Mahomes is clearly one of the best QBs of our generation, 5,050 is a big number. Even throughout his short but illustrious career, he’s only thrown for over 5,000 yards once back in 2018. He lost one of his wideouts in Sammy Watkins as well. While he wasn’t a primary option, he still provided solid depth that isn’t there anymore. The KC run game is expected to take a step forward with Clyde Edwards Helaire entering his second season in the NFL.

Mahomes will still get a ton of yards passing, but it won’t be this much.

39.5 passing TDs (Under-140, Over+110)

Our pick: Under

Again, here’s an example of those high expectations showing themselves. This one is a bit more realistic, though. While he’s only gone over 39.5 once in his career, back in 2018, he came close last season with 38. Mahomes isn’t going to turn the ball over a lot, so he’ll have plenty of TD chances, but they need a true No. 3 pass catcher behind Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill if he’s going to eclipse 40 TDs. Right now, they don’t have that.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL).Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA/MI), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (NH/CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA) or call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN).21+ (18+ NH). CO/IL/IN/IA/NH/NJ/PA/TN/VA/WV/MI only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.