Why Kyler Murray will go over on yardage and TD prop bets for 2021 NFL season

Heading into his third season in the NFL, Kyler Murray has shown he has the ability to improve year in and year out. His team has retooled a bit around him for 2021, which should give him the ability to have a breakout season in the desert.

Here, we’ll take a look at the prop bets on the table for Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray on DraftKings Sportsbook ahead of the 2021 NFL season and make our picks.

4150.5 passing yards: Over (-115) or Under (-115)

Our pick: Over

While Murray hasn’t hit 4,000 yards passing yet through two NFL seasons, he’s gotten better each year. With natural progression heading into his third season he should be able to get 4,150 easily. On top of standard QB development, the Cards went out and upgraded at wide receiver, which will make life easier for Murray.

While DeAndre Hopkins is still the clear WR, they also signed AJ Green. He had a down season in 2020, but this will be the first time in his career that he’ll be going up against a team’s CB 2 or 3, while Hopkins takes the brunt of the coverage. Arizona also drafted speedster Rondale Moore out of Purdue, who should take over Andy Isabella’s role in the slot and make an immediate impact in coach Kliff Kingsbury’s spread offense.

25.5 passing TDs: Over (-130) or Under (+100)

Our pick: Over

Murry tossed for 26 touchdowns last season. While Hopkins got the lion’s share of the yards, the scores were pretty evenly distributed among the pass catchers. With the upgrades of Green and Moore, it wouldn’t shock me if Murray ends up with 30 or more scores on the year.

680.5 rushing yards: Over (-120) or Under (-110)

Our pick: Over

Murray is a true dual threat and Kingsbury will not be too afraid to use his legs on designed runs here and there. But with the retooled WR corps, he’ll probably be dropping back to pass quite a bit. When the coverage is good downfield, he can scramble away and pick up a ton of yards that way too.

In 2020, he had over 800 rushing yards, in his rookie year he had nearly 600. So I don’t see him slowing back down to his rookie numbers during his third season in the league.

7.5 rushing TDs: Over (-110) or Under (-120)

Our pick: Over

This seems like a very low TD total for a QB like Murray. He had 11 rushing scores last year. When the ball gets within the 10-yard line, Murray becomes extremely dangerous with his legs, being able to scramble away from defenders and sneak into the endzone while DBs have their backs turned. He’s not just elusive either, he’s extremely fast and can outrun defenses as well.

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