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Why Matt Ryan will go under on passing yards, over on TD prop bets for 2021 NFL season

We take a look at the odds on the table for Atlanta Falcons QB Matt Ryan available on DraftKings Sportsbook and make our predictions ahead of the 2021 NFL season.

Matt Ryan #2 of the Atlanta Falcons looks to pass during a game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium on January 03, 2021 in Tampa, Florida. Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

The Atlanta Falcons missed out on the playoffs each of the last three seasons, but the organization has determined Matt Ryan is not the issue because they could have gone with a quarterback in the 2021 NFL Draft. Expectations are not overly high for this franchise in 2021, and it will be interesting to see what the passing game looks like with a bit of a shakeup among the pass catchers this offseason.

Here, we’ll take a look at the prop bets on the table for Atlanta Falcons QB Matt Ryan on DraftKings Sportsbook ahead of the 2021 NFL season and make our picks.

4450.5 passing yards: Over (-115) or Under (-115)

Our pick: Under

Matt Ryan has thrown for more than 4450.5 yards in eight of the last nine seasons as he has been incredibly durable, missing just three games since his career started in 2008. Still, Ryan will be without Julio Jones, who is now a member of the Tennessee Titans. Jones has taken a step back from an elite playmaker status, but it’s still going to be a significant loss for Ryan, and his absence should keep the yardage total lower than oddsmakers project.

29.5 passing TDs: Over (+100) or Under (-130)

Our pick: Over

Matt Ryan threw for more than 27 touchdowns just once in the final four seasons, but that number should increase in 2021, and getting plus value in this spot is a solid bet. Instead of going with a quarterback in the first round of the draft this spring, the Falcons added former Florida Gators tight end Kyle Pitts, who is going to be a real threat in the red zone. This is a solid tight end group with Pitts and Hayden Hurst, which should be great for Ryan’s touchdown total.

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