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Countdown to 2021 fantasy football drafts: Josh Allen No. 26

Josh Allen comes in at 26 in our fantasy football rankings countdown to the 2021 NFL season.

Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills looks to throw a pass during training camp at Highmark Stadium on July 31, 2021 in Orchard Park, New York. Photo by Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images

Bills quarterback Josh Allen had a breakout season in 2020, as he finished as the No. 1 fantasy football quarterback with great passing and rushing numbers. The hope for 2021 is more of the same and there is little reason not to believe he can repeat.

To commemorate the 2021 NFL season, we’ll be counting down the 75 best fantasy football players in the league. Picking a Top 75 is subjective, especially when you are projecting a whole season of accumulated fantasy points, but that’s part of the fun. We’ll assume what I see as an average league, which is 12 teams, .5 PPR scoring and a roster of 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, & 1RB/WR/TE. Kickers and defenses need not apply.

Change is the nature of the NFL beast, so trades and injuries will likely impact this list as we go along, but hey, this isn’t rocket science. We’re here to have a little fun and build up some much needed anticipation for a league cast in the shadow by baseball, soccer, hockey, etc. Sarcasm aside, the NFL is addictive and we’re here to give your daily fix as we close in on the season.

The official fantasy football drafting tiers can be found here.

No. 26, Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills, QB

Allen completed 69.2 percent of his passes as he went 396-of-572 for 4,544 yards, 37 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. But what pushed him to the top of the fantasy finishers were his rushing yards and touchdowns. He ran 102 times for 421 yards and eight touchdowns, his third straight season of eight or more rushing scores.

Competition for touches

The Bills running backs ran the ball just 290 times in 2020, ranking 29th in the league, while Allen and the Bills threw the ball 594 times, the 11th most in the league. The offense very much goes through Allen.

Team offensive expectations

The Bills offense ranked fifth overall in Football Outsiders DVOA and should again be near the top once again. With a strong offensive line, Stefon Diggs as their No. 1 receiver and Allen leading the way, they are set up well.

What’s his upside?

Allen’s upside is similar to his 2020 season. Repeating those kind of numbers will be tough, but he has been consistent in his rushing touchdown numbers, which is a great sign. He saw a big uptick is passing touchdowns, but his high 6.5 percent touchdown rate might not be an outlier. We’ve seen Patrick Mahomes range from 8.6, 5.4 and 6.5 percent over his first three season. Allen has been moving up in his three season, going from 3.1. to 4.3 and then 6.5 percent last season.

What’s his downside?

Allen’s downside is tied to health and luck. His rushing touchdown numbers have been steady, but rushing touchdowns are still hard to predict. And the same can be said about passing touchdowns. But all signs point to him keeping his strong numbers up.

Projection

415/600, 4,750 yards, 35 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 105 rushing attempts, 450 yards, 8 touchdowns