The New Orleans Saints will be ushering in a new era of football this season with future HOF QB Drew Brees hanging up the cleats. The Saints will have either Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill starting under center. Whoever is starting for Sean Payton’s crew, they’ll be giving the ball a lot to dual-threat running back Alvin Kamara.
Kamara will be the team’s top offensive option this season as wide receiver Michael Thomas will be out for the few weeks of the season due to offseason surgery.
945.5 rushing yards: Over (+100) or Under (-130)
Our pick: Under
If Kamara were to go over his rushing yards prop (945.5) this season, it would be a career-high. Last season, the dynamic running back crossed the 900-plus rushing yard threshold with 932 yards on 187 carries and 16 touchdowns. With a new quarterback under center and Thomas on the injured list, there could be more opportunities for Kamara to be a factor on the ground. But I like the under in this spot as the Saints will use the former third-round pick in the receiving game a lot.
10 rushing TDs: Over (-115) or Under (-115)
Our pick: Over
Even if Kamara does not go over his rushing yard prop, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he goes over his rushing touchdowns prop. Last season, the versatile running back had a career-high 16 rushing touchdowns. It was the second time in his career that Kamara went had 10 or more rushing scores. The first time happened in 2018, where Kamara recorded 14 touchdowns on 194 carries.
Coincidentally, when Kamara had at least 10 rushing scores, he averaged 190 carries. But Kamara might not get to 190 carries this season with the Saints having Latavius Murray and Devonta Freeman in the backfield.
1500.5 scrimmage yards: Over (-120) or Under (-110)
Our pick: Over
There’s a ton of juice on this player prop, but I feel like this is very feasible for Kamara to accomplish this season. In his four-year career, the 26-year-old has gone over 1,500.5 scrimmage yards three times. The only time he did not reach 1,500.5 yards was in 2019, where Kamara had 1,330 scrimmage yards. Don’t think twice about this prop, lay the price and enjoy the season.
70.5 receptions: Over (-125) or Under (-105)
Our pick: Over
Another juiced prop at -125 odds, but with Kamara’s involvement in the offense, he’ll easily go over 70.5 receptions. In his four-year career, the former University of Tennessee standout is averaging 81.5 receptions and 102.3 targets per game.
Last season, Kamara had 83 receptions (107 targets) and produced a career-high 1,688 scrimmage yards.
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