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Why Josh Allen OVER/UNDER passing, rushing prop bets for 2021 NFL season

Josh Allen broke out in 2020, but more could be in store for the Bills’ franchise quarterback in 2021.

Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills during mandatory minicamp on June 16, 2021 in Orchard Park, New York. Photo by Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images

After two inconsistent seasons in the NFL, Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen blossomed in 2020. The former No. 7 overall pick limited mistakes, improved his passing mechanics and boosted his overall efficiency in what became a breakout campaign for both him and the team.

Here, we take a look at the prop bets on the table for Allen on DraftKings Sportsbook ahead of the 2021 NFL season and make our picks.

4550.5 passing yards: Over (-115) or Under (-115)

Our pick: Over

The Bills predicate their offense on the passing game, an approach they confirmed last season by finishing in the top 10 in pass attempts while ranking in the bottom half of the league in rushes. The team spent this offseason doubling down on that ideology, signing veteran wideout Emmanuel Sanders to bolster the receiving corps while returning the same primary tailbacks from a year ago.

All of which means the Bills expect to throw an awful lot in 2021. Allen threw for 4,544 yards (284 per game) and now enters his fourth NFL season. Even if he caught some lucky breaks in 2020 — most notably on dropped interceptions — Allen should continue to pile up passing numbers during the upcoming 17-game season.

34.5 passing touchdowns: Over (-115) or Under (-115)

Our pick: Under

While Allen has already eclipsed 34.5 passing touchdowns in 2020, he significantly outperformed his career average in touchdown percentage (6.5% versus 5.0%) in order to do so. While he has the talent and supporting cast to repeat that success, enough variables exist to limit the likelihood. Allen’s running ability and size could also take a bite out of his passing total near the goal line.

480.5 rushing yards: Over (-115) or Under (-115)

Our pick: Under

At least in theory, the more Allen matures as a quarterback, the more judiciously he will tuck the ball and run. His rushing output has declined each season since his rookie total (631 yards) and the extra game on the 2021 schedule seems unlikely to offset that decline.

8 rushing touchdowns: Over (-115) or Under (-115)

Our pick: Over

While Allen’s play has fluctuated significantly over his three years in the NFL, one metric has stayed consistent: rushing touchdowns. He has two seasons with eight scores on the ground and one with nine. Even if the Bills attempt to limit the amount of rushing he does moving forward, he remains too valuable as a runner near the goal line to take that element out of the game plan. With an extra game with which to work, Allen should land slightly over the total here.

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