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Why Josh Jacobs will go OVER or UNDER rushing yards, TDs for 2021 NFL season

Josh Jacobs has led the Raiders rushing attack since entering the NFL, but the addition of Kenyan Drake raises questions about his role in 2021.

Josh Jacobs #28 of the Las Vegas Raiders catches a pass during training camp at the Las Vegas Raiders Headquarters/Intermountain Healthcare Performance Center on July 28, 2021 in Henderson, Nevada. Photo by Steve Marcus/Getty Images

Since entering the NFL as a first-round pick in 2019, Josh Jacobs has led the Oakland/Las Vegas Raiders in rushing and served as one of the principal pieces of the core head coach Jon Gruden and general manager Mike Mayock have assembled. However, one of the team’s major offseason additions has raised questions about Jacobs’ role in 2021 and beyond.

Here, we take a look at the prop bets on the table for Jacobs on DraftKings Sportsbook ahead of the 2021 NFL season and make our picks.

975.5 rushing yards: Over (-115) or Under (-115)

Our pick: Under

While Jacobs has started every game when healthy during his two seasons in the league, he hasn’t commanded as large a share of the Raiders offensive snaps as one might assume. He played less than half of the team’s offensive plays as a rookie in 2019 and, despite playing in two more games last year, didn’t crack 60% in his follow-up performance. Now, with Kenyan Drake arriving to take a sizable share of the backfield work, Jacob’s timeshare could see further reductions. Between games missed and the lack of control over the backfield rotation, Jacobs has a high probability of registering his first season below 1,000 rushing yards.

8.5 rushing TDs: Over (-110) or Under (-120)

Our pick: Under

Ostensibly, the Raiders brought in Drake, who scored nine touchdowns on runs inside the 10-yard line in 2020, primarily for his acumen at the goal line. That doesn’t bode well for Jacobs, who scored all but three of his touchdowns last season under the same parameters. Drake doesn’t need to cut into Jacobs’ red-zone workload much to crater the latter’s scoring production, and the extra game on the schedule can only mitigate so much.

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