Few teams could trade away a soon-to-be All-Pro from its receiving corps and expect superior results in the passing game. However, the Minnesota Vikings managed to do just that in 2020, essentially swapping Stefon Diggs for Justin Jefferson. While Diggs delivered his finest season to date with the Buffalo Bills, Jefferson turned in an all-time great rookie campaign by a wide receiver, hauling in 88 passes for 1,400 yards and seven touchdowns.
Jefferson’s emergence has generated some high expectations for his 2021 follow-up. Here, we take a look at the prop bets on the table for him on DraftKings Sportsbook ahead of the 2021 NFL season and make our picks.
Justin Jefferson player prop bets for 2021 NFL season
1325.5 receiving yards: Over (-110) or Under (-120)
Our pick: Under
Jefferson recorded exactly 1,400 yards as a rookie in a 16-game season, making the over here appear tempting. However, such individual campaigns occur rarely even for elite receivers and repeats occur even more infrequently. Jefferson has the advantage of an additional game on the 2021 schedule, but he can expect some regression in enough areas (catch rate and games played in particular) to accumulate fewer receiving yards.
8.5 receiving touchdowns: Over (+100) or Under (-130)
Our pick: Over
Last year, Jefferson scored more than half of his seven touchdowns in the red zone despite seeing just 18 targets inside the 20. That number figures to increase this season, and Jefferson remains a deep-play threat. The Vikings also have enough threats elsewhere in the passing game to keep defenses from solely focusing on Jefferson.
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