The 2021 NFL season is officially underway, with yet another Tom Brady fourth quarter comeback securing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a Week 1 win against the Dallas Cowboys. Dak Prescott and the Cowboys gave the Bucs everything they could handle, but it wasn’t quite enough.
Heading into the weekend, there is plenty to figure out for fantasy football purposes. If you’re trying to figure out the upside for certain players, you’ll be looking at a variety of stats for the team and their opponents. Given that we are in Week 1, any counting and rate stats are based on previous year’s performance. However, oddsmakers offer information that can be of value.
Below, we’ve compiled a table of Week 1 implied totals for each team at DraftKings Sportsbook. We figured out each implied total by dividing the over/under number in half, then dividing the point spread in half and subtracting the latter from the former. For last night, the over/under settled at 53 and the spread was 9.5. So for the Bucs, we subtracted -4.75 from 26.5 and for the Cowboys we subtracted +4.75 from 26.5. I could just say for the Bucs we added 4.75 to 26.5, but for purposes of creating the calculation in the spreadsheet, it’s a minus.
Whatever the case, it’s interesting to see that the Bucs implied total of 31.25 came in just over their final result of 31. Of course, the Cowboys implied total was 21.75 and they finished with 29 points.
It’s not a science, but given that oddsmakers don’t just pull odds out of thin air, it’s a helpful data point as you sort through your fantasy options. If you see a player ranked poorly for the week in re-draft leagues or is available for cheap in DFS, but his team’s implied total is on the higher end, you might just have a sleeper on your hand.
2021 NFL implied totals, Week 1
|1||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||31.25||-9.5||53||Dallas Cowboys|
|2||Kansas City Chiefs||30.00||-5.5||54.5||Cleveland Browns|
|3||Tennessee Titans||28.25||-3.0||53.5||Arizona Cardinals|
|4||Buffalo Bills||27.50||-6.5||48.5||Pittsburgh Steelers|
|5||Los Angeles Rams||27.25||-8.0||46.5||Chicago Bears|
|6||Baltimore Ravens||26.75||-3.5||50||Las Vegas Raiders|
|7||San Francisco 49ers||26.50||-8.0||45||Detroit Lions|
|8||Green Bay Packers||26.50||-3.5||49.5||New Orleans Saints|
|9||Atlanta Falcons||26.00||-3.5||48.5||Philadelphia Eagles|
|10||Seattle Seahawks||25.75||-2.5||49||Indianapolis Colts|
|11||Arizona Cardinals||25.25||+3.0||53.5||Tennessee Titans|
|12||Minnesota Vikings||25.00||-3.0||47||Cincinnati Bengals|
|13||Cleveland Browns||24.50||+5.5||54.5||Kansas City Chiefs|
|14||Carolina Panthers||24.25||-4.0||44.5||New York Jets|
|15||Jacksonville Jaguars||24.00||-3.0||45||Houston Texans|
|16||New England Patriots||23.50||-3.5||43.5||Miami Dolphins|
|17||Washington||23.50||-1.5||45.5||Los Angeles Chargers|
|18||Indianapolis Colts||23.25||+2.5||49||Seattle Seahawks|
|19||Las Vegas Raiders||23.25||+3.5||50||Baltimore Ravens|
|20||New Orleans Saints||23.00||+3.5||49.5||Green Bay Packers|
|21||Denver Broncos||22.50||-3.0||42||New York Giants|
|22||Philadelphia Eagles||22.50||+3.5||48.5||Atlanta Falcons|
|23||Los Angeles Chargers||22.00||+1.5||45.5||Washington|
|24||Cincinnati Bengals||22.00||+3.0||47||Minnesota Vikings|
|25||Dallas Cowboys||21.75||+9.5||53||Tampa Bay Buccaneers|
|26||Houston Texans||21.00||+3.0||45||Jacksonville Jaguars|
|27||Pittsburgh Steelers||21.00||+6.5||48.5||Buffalo Bills|
|28||New York Jets||20.25||+4.0||44.5||Carolina Panthers|
|29||Miami Dolphins||20.00||+3.5||43.5||New England Patriots|
|30||New York Giants||19.50||+3.0||42||Denver Broncos|
|31||Chicago Bears||19.25||+8.0||46.5||Los Angeles Rams|
|32||Detroit Lions||18.50||+8.0||45||San Francisco 49ers|
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