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Josh Allen start or sit: Week 1 fantasy football advice

We go over the fantasy football outlook of Josh Allen ahead of the Pittsburgh Steelers Week 1 matchup against the Buffalo Bills.

NFL: Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

While Josh Allen finished a distant second in MVP voting last season, the mere fact the Buffalo Bills’ starting quarterback secured even one vote underscored his incredible improvement from the year before. Allen, now with a massive extension tying him to the team for the foreseeable future, has established himself as one of the NFL’s brightest young stars, one capable of carrying the Bills to a Super Bowl.

Fantasy football analysis: Bills QB Josh Allen

A decline in turnovers fueled Allen’s breakout, but some of the credit for that reduction belongs to sheer luck. According to QB Data Mine, Allen threw 21 dropped interceptions in 2020, the most that year by anyone. For context, only Jameis Winston also reached that figure over the past two seasons, doing so as part of his disastrous “30-for-30” final campaign with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2019. Allen can expect more of his interceptable passes to turn into picks moving forward, so he’ll have to reduce the number of throws he places in harm’s way. And the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Bills’ Week 1 opponent, have the defense to take advantage if he doesn’t.

Still, Allen enters Year 4 in the same offensive system with arguably his best supporting cast. Even if he regresses in 2021, that doesn’t mean he won’t remain highly effective.

Fantasy start/sit recommendation

Start Josh Allen in all formats.