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One of the most exciting games on the slate for Week 1 is the Pittsburgh Steelers at the Buffalo Bills. Two sure-fire playoff picks with Super Bowl ambitions, both teams will be looking to make a statement right out of the gate. Kickoff is at 1 p.m. ET. Here’s a look at a couple of the betting trends for this one that you may want to consider this week.
Point Spread
Bills -6.5: 69% of handle and 66% of bets are on Bills -6.5
Is the public right?
This feels like one of those times where we might be best to ignore the wisdom of crowds. This feels like a big spread for two teams who could easily cruise to the AFC Championship this season. And we’ve all been sleeping on the Steelers this season. They’re a more talented team than they were last year. Plus, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s arm looks a lot stronger than it did, which means chucking it down the field like the days of old. One historic trend I keep coming back to with this one is that the Steelers are 10-3 against the spread in their last 13 games as underdogs on the road. Yes, we can also point to the fact that Buffalo was 7-3 against the spread at home last year, but this is the kind of game Mike Tomlin’s teams have traditionally gotten up for.
Point Total
48.5: 55% of handle and 54% of bets are on the over
Is the public right?
The public is spot on here. In fact, I’m kind of surprised there aren’t more bets for this one to go over. Both teams can score a lot of points. The defenses are both among the league’s best, but with two loaded offenses, that comes to down to their stop units standing tall when it matters most, i.e. key third downs or goal line stands, rather than pitching a near shutout.
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