Alabama vs. Florida picks and best bets for Week 3

The big SEC on CBS game will see the No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide head down to the Swamp on a muggy Saturday afternoon to meet the No. 11 Florida Gators at 3:30 p.m. ET.

Florida (2-0) will be the first SEC team to get a crack at the defending national champions this and will try to trigger the upset with a little bit of a quarterback controversy on their hands. Senior starter Emory Jones has looked vulnerable in both of UF’s games so far, throwing two interceptions last week in their 42-20 rout of USF. Despite some of his mistakes, he has been effective in managing the Gator offense and has been backed publicly by head coach Dan Mullen and his teammates.

On the other end is redshirt freshman Anthony Richardson, who has been explosive every time he’s touched the ball. The Gainesville native has been a dual-threat force in two games, averaging 17.5 yards per pass attempt and 25 yards per carry off just 11 QB runs. The use of the two QB’s has drawn comparisons to the two-QB tandem of Chris Leak and Tim Tebow of UF’s 2006 national championship team and it’s fitting, considering the younger Richardson is wearing Tebow’s No. 15 jersey. We’ll see how Mullen plays it on Saturday with the young phenom working through a hamstring injury this week.

Alabama (2-0) heads into Gainesville coming off a 48-14 tune up win over Mercer, the typical game where the Crimson Tide sleepwalks to a blowout victory but Nick Saban still finds things to pound the podium about in the postgame presser. Starting QB Bryce Young had another efficient afternoon, going 19-27 for 227 yards and three touchdowns on the day.

Here’s all the data you’ll want, and a pick for the game!

SP+ Rankings

Alabama: 1st overall, 3rd offense, 4th defense
Florida: 9th overall, 7th offense, 23rd defense

Injury update

Alabama

LB Will Anderson Jr. is questionable – Knee

RB Camar Wheaton is questionable – Undisclosed

LB Christopher Allen is out for season – Foot

LB Quandarrius Robinson is out indefinitely – Suspension

DB Jalyn Armour Davis is probable– Undisclosed

DB Josh Jobe is probable – Undisclosed

WR Xavier Williams is out for season – Undisclosed

Florida

QB Anthony Richardson is probable – Hamstring

CB Jaydon Hill is out for season – Knee

LB Ventrell Miller is out for season – Bicep

ATS/Total

Against The Spread

Alabama: 9-4 ATS (2020)
Florida: 5-6-1 ATS (2020)

Total

Alabama: Over 7-5-1 (2020)
Florida: Over 8-4 (2020)

Returning/Overall Talent from 247Sports

Alabama: 1st overall, 1st offense, 1st defense
Florida: 5th overall, 5th offense, 10th defense

Current lines at DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: Alabama -14.5
Total: 59.5
Moneyline: Alabama -650, Florida +460

Opening line: Alabama -14
Opening total: 57

Weather

86 degrees, 4 MPH NNE, 52% chance of rain

The Pick

Over 59.5

Alabama is going to put up 40+ points regardless of who they play, so the real question here is if Florida can get to about three touchdowns to trigger the over. The Gators may not have the same caliber of offensive firepower that hung with the Tide in the SEC Championship game last season but guys like Jacob Copeland and Malik Davis are worthy enough playmakers that can get the best of any defense.

Gator overs are 6-3-1 under Dan Mullen when Florida is an underdog and in front of a massive home crowd at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, they should put up enough of an offensive fight for the over to hit.

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