Tennessee vs. Florida picks and best bets for Week 4

The Florida Gators proved they can hang with college football’s best in a two-point loss to the Alabama Crimson Tide last weekend and will host the Tennessee Volunteers on Saturday, September 25th at 7:00 p.m. ET as heavy favorites.

Florida (2-1, 0-1 SEC) came one two-point conversion away from tying Alabama late in the fourth quarter following a slow start. Dan Mullen has done a great job in changing the identity of the offense this season to fit his players’ strengths as the Gators are much more of a running team with Emory Jones under center. Florida still has everything to play for and won 15 of the last 16 meetings between these two teams.

Speaking of an offensive transformation, Tennessee (2-1, 0-0 SEC) is averaging 42.7 points per game with wins over the Bowling Green Falcons and Tennessee Tech in addition to a loss to the Pittsburgh Panthers. The Volunteers will need a few years to get back to where they want to be as a program but win or lose, they are going to be fun to watch offensively under Josh Heupel.

Here’s all the data you’ll want, and a pick for the game!

SP+ Rankings

Tennessee: 28 overall, 57 offense, 21 defense
Florida: 8 overall, 6 offense, 25 defense

Injury update

Tennessee

QB Joe Milton III - Questionable (lower body)
OL Cooper Mays - Questionable (ankle)
RB Jabari Small - Questionable (undisclosed)
DL LaTrell Bumphus - Questionable (knee)

Florida

QB Anthony Richardson - Probable (hamstring)
OL Jean Delance - Questionable (leg)

ATS/Total

Against The Spread

Tennessee: 1-2
Florida: 1-2

Total

Tennessee: Over 2-1
Florida: Over 2-1

Returning/Overall Talent from 247Sports

Tennessee: 19 overall, 19 offense, 17 defense
Florida: 5 overall, 5 offense, 10 defense

Current lines at DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: Florida -18.5
Total: 62
Moneyline: Florida -1125, Tennessee +700

Opening line: Florida -17
Opening total: 67.5

Weather

86 degrees, 6 MPH wind, 6% chance of rain

The Pick

Over 62

The public is driving this total down, but we’re going in the opposite direction because a ton of points are going to be scored in this game. It will likely come down to what Tennessee wants to do tempo-wise and without a whole lot to lose, expect the Volunteers to go fast as they’ve done so far this season. With the extra possessions, both teams should have plenty of chances to score throughout the night, and there’s a lot of value on the over as this number continues to decrease.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA/MI), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (NH/CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA) or call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN). 21+ (18+ NH). CO/IL/IN/IA/NH/NJ/PA/TN/VA/WV/MI only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.