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Tom Brady returns to Foxborough, the prop bet edition

We take a look at Tom Brady’s prop bets on his return to Gillette Stadium in Week 4 with DraftKings Sportsbook providing some special offers.

Super Bowl LV Rob Gronkowski #87 and Tom Brady #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers celebrate winning Super Bowl LV at Raymond James Stadium on February 07, 2021 in Tampa, Florida.

This is the week many football fans had circled on their calendars, as Tom Brady returns to Foxborough to take on his old team. Since leaving the New England Patriots for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2020, Brady quickly helped his new team to a Super Bowl championship, while helping himself to his seventh Super Bowl ring.

Of course, Brady won six of those rings with the Patriots, but I assume plenty of fans have yet to get over him leaving. I’m assuming it will be a mixed reaction from the Patriots faithful. But other than the off-field stuff, they do have a football game to play.

This game, barring an unforeseen catastrophe, will push Brady past Drew Brees for the most passing yards all-time. And now that Brees is retired, Brady will just keep adding to his lead as he plays into his 60s.

Brees sits at 80,358 yards while Brady is at 80,291 yards. Brady will need just 68 passing yards to take the record, which could easily come on his first drive. The next highest active player on the all-time list is Ben Roethlisberger in seventh at 61,149 yards, then Matt Ryan at ninth with 56,474 and Aaron Rodgers at tenth with 51,894. I think Brady may hold onto this record for a while.

With such a historic game on tap this week, DraftKings Sportsbook has added some fun betting props for the matchup with 25% profit boosts on 3 different Brady bets. All you have to do is opt-in on the site.

Prop bets

Number of Completed Passes for Tom Brady to get Over 67.5 Passing yards

Over 5.5 -140, Under 5.5 +110

Brady is second in the league with 18 completions of 20+ yards and averages 11.2 yards per completion. If he stuck strictly to his average it would take six completions to break the record, but one big completion puts him over the mark. I’m leaning the under here.

Rob Gronkowski Over 162.5 Receiving Yards (Career high at Foxboro)

Yes +1400

I expect Gronk to get some love in this game to be sure, but that’s a bit too much love on a team full of playmakers.

Tom Brady Over 443.5 Passing Yards (Career high at Foxboro)

Yes +1200

Brady put up 432 yards last week against a good Rams defense because his team was down for much of the game. Last season his high with the Buccaneers was 399 yards win a win over the Falcons. If you expect Brady to try to stick it to Bill Belichick, then maybe he gets close to this number. Realistically, the Patriots offense just isn’t good enough to keep Brady throwing the ball 55 times like he did last week.

Tom Brady Over 6.5 Passing TD (Career high at Foxboro)

Yes +1800

Another huge number, which should have similar analysis to the total passing yards prop above.

Tom Brady Over 67.5 Passing Yards in 1st Quarter

Yes -225, No +175

So far this season Brady has averaged 68.5 passing yards in the first quarter. He’ll have Antonio Brown back for this game and will be primed for a good start. I like the over.

Which Tampa Bay Player will Catch the Record-Breaking Pass From Tom Brady?

Mike Evans +350, Chris Godwin +350, Rob Gronkowski +400, Antonio Brown +500, Giovani Bernard +700, Leonard Fournette +800, Tyler Johnson +900, Cameron Brate +1000, O.J. Howard +1000, Scotty Miller +1200, Ronald Jones +1400, Ke’Shaun Vaughn +4000, Jaydon Mickens +4000, Jaelon Darden +5000, Tom Brady +5000

Chris Godwin leads the team in targets, receptions and yards and is the most-likely to end up catching the record ball. But, if he can, I could see Brady singling out Gronkowski when the time comes. If I’m taking a flier on someone it’s like Leonard Fournette, who is fifth in receptions, while the team could be without Gio Bernard.

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