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Virginia vs. Miami picks and best bets for Thursday Night Football

It looks like Miami still won’t have D’Eriq King under center, and the betting markets are starting to notice.

Brennan Armstrong of the Virginia Cavaliers throws a pass during a game against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Scott Stadium on September 24, 2021 in Charlottesville, Virginia. Photo by Ryan M. Kelly/Getty Images

The Miami Hurricanes might have won 69-0 last week, but there might not be a team in the country reeling more, nor a coach with a hotter seat than Manny Diaz. And they’ll get yet another big test tonight against the Virginia Cavaliers on ESPN at 7:30 p.m. ET, and apparently without starting quarterback D’Eriq King.

Here’s all the data you’ll want, and a pick for the game!

SP+ Rankings

Virginia: 55 overall, 36 offense, 73 defense
Miami: 25 overall, 32 offense, 33 defense

Injury update


LB Hunter Stewart is questionable with a leg injury
TE Jelani Woods is questionable with a leg injury
RB Wayne Taulapapa is questionable with concussion symptoms


QB D’Eriq King is doubtful with a shoulder injury
RB Jaylan Knighton is probable after a team suspension


Against The Spread

Virginia: 2-2 ATS
Miami: 1-3 ATS

Returning/Overall Talent from 247Sports

Virginia: 49 overall, 58 offense, 40 defense
Miami: 12 overall, 7 offense, 14 defense

Current lines at DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: Miami -4.5
Total: 62.5
Moneyline: Virginia +170, Miami -200

Opening line: Miami -3
Opening total: 62


77 degrees, 13 MPH wind, 41% chance of rain

The Pick

Under 62

Tyler Van Dyke and Jake Garcia combined for 21-25 for 417 yards and five touchdowns last week for Miami. But they played something called Central Connecticut State University, and the Fighting Nutmegs (we’re not looking up their real mascot) aren’t exactly how you want to judge an offense.

Expect the Canes to try and take some air out of the ball, as well as UVA to maybe try and keep the offense on the field a bit longer with Brennan Armstrong, who has been solid if not spectacular for the Hoos this season.

On talent this isn’t close, and even without King UM should win this game. But the talent in Coral Gables hasn’t translated on the field yet, and it’s why Diaz and his staff are on the hot seat.

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